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Kohath,
I looked at your numbers below and there are a few
things that do not make sense in sugesting that Ira's
system would make him richer than Gates. I'll show why
$50,000 grows to only one Million or so in a year.
We start with the basics...
80% winners 20% losers
60% net winners
40 trades a year in bonds and S&P
average net per winning bond trade $2930 S&P 4965
average loss 1060 bonds 2535 S&P
Assuming that a trader starts with 50K and has 4
winners and 1 loser in every cycle. Trades one S&P and
two bonds per signal (per 50K in account). After every
cycle the trader re sets the number of contracts to
trade in the next cycle by seeing how many units of
50K the trader has. i put the numbers in Excell and
after a year 50K turns into a million and then the tax
man takes 1/2 of it away.
Good Trading
Dick
--- Neal Hughes <neal@xxxxxxxxxxxxx> wrote:
> At 09:41 PM 6/29/99 -0500, you wrote:
> >If there is in fact a system that is %80 / 1 on 1,
> and if that system
> >traded once per week, the system should give a
> return of (0.8 * 1) - (0.2 *
> >1) = 0.8 - 0.2 = 0.6. This would be multiplied
> times 52 weeks, or 52 * 0.6
> >= 31.2. Therefore, given the %80 probability of
> this system with a %60
> >return, one could expect to gain, given 1 trade per
> week, with 1 years
> >trading, placing $10,000 on each trade, 10,000 *
> 31.2 = $312,000. If one
> >decided he wanted to own the universe in a few
> years, simply re-investing
> >the profits in each trade would result in a balance
> at the end of 52 weeks
> >of
> >10,000 * (1.6) ^52 = $411,376,139,330,300. Not bad
> for a years trading.
> >That is 411 Trillion. I would submit if this
> system actually does exist, I
> >would certainly like to look into it, to see if I
> would possibly be
> >interested in using such a system.
> >
> >Kohath
> >
>
===
Big Lucky Dick
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