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You are welcome to do that study and report back to us.
There are many ramifications that can be made from
these results. I have only started to dig. As an
example, is the total % gain for this week greater than
any other week? I can tell you that of the up weeks
the smallest gain was .051% and the largest gain was 5.39%
Norman E.
THE DOCTOR wrote:
>
> The "Normal" log normality of the market assumes(For a year
> period)56%
> probability to the upside and 44% to the downside. That,
> however, is not the real issue. The real question would be
> is the move large enough to benefit from after all trading
> friction(b/a spreads, transaction costs and market impact).
>
> TheGonch at MediaKat wrote:
>
> > Since we've been in a long bull market, with pullbacks of short duration,
> > these numbers mean nothing by themselves. Anyone have the statistics for an
> > average week during the same periods?
> >
> > DanG
> >
> > "Norman E. Phair" wrote:
> >
> > > STOCKS; OPTION EXPIRATION WEEK.
> > >
> > > I read an article some time ago that stated option
> > > expiration week tends to have an upward bias.
> > > Tradehard made the following statement on June 17th:
> > >
> > > > Tomorrow is the quarterly expiration of options on stocks, stock indexes
> > > > and stock index futures. Stocks over the past five years have generally
> > > > moved higher in the week of the triple-witching options expiration.
> > > >
> > > > http://www.tradehard.com/index2.cfm
> > >
> > > the results for the last 5 years for All months and
> > > the last 12 years through this month are below.
> > >
> > > Last 5 years.
> > >
> > > Up 35 weeks or 56%
> > > Down 13 weeks or 21%
> > > Unch. 14 weeks or 23% ( Unchanged is a net change of
> > > less that .05%
> > >
> > > >From 1988 to date.
> > >
> > > Up 75 weeks or 54%
> > > Down 35 weeks or 26%
> > > Unch. 28 weeks or 20%
> > >
> > > The best 3 months: Jan, Apr and Dec.
> > > The worst 3 months: June, July and Aug.
> > >
> > > Triple witching only:
> > >
> > > Last 5 1/2 years
> > >
> > > Up 15 weeks or 68%
> > > Down 2 weeks or 9%
> > > Unch. 5 weeks or 23%
> > >
> > > >From 1988 to date:
> > >
> > > Up 25 weeks or 54%
> > > Down 10 weeks or 22%
> > > Unch. 11 weeks or 24%
> > >
> > > A week to watch in the future. There is an old saying:
> > > If you p--- into an east wind you will get wet. Why
> > > did I do the study. I got wet. Fair warning. Mark your
> > > calendar.
> > >
> > > Norman E.
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