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At 01:41 PM 6/20/99 -0400, Ronald McEwan wrote:
>Norman wrote:
>
> ... I think an important fact to consider is that if the mkt does go down
as I had estimated, does that
>validated this analysis, or was it coincidental (synchronicity) ?
>
>Ron McEwan
Dear Ron:
It depended in what sense you use word "validate". If it is a word from
common language then yes, every time market does what you expect it is
validation of your "analysis". If you have in mind scientific meaning of
"validation" then no. We do not have scientific model (nether deterministic
nor statistical) of the markets and therefore our "predictions" can not be
validated.
We are left with studying markets behavior (trying to use scientific
instrument if we can). In that case every little observation helps. So if
you notice correlation between oils and pigs try to use it. Jessy Livermor
traded one time on cycles of the straight neighborhood cat having the
kittens. (Reminiscent of Jessy stockbroker).
I do not want to go to the discussion can market be predicted or not.
Scientific meaning of the word "prediction" implies having a model of the
reality and calculating the outcome. I did not yet heard about anyone
coming up with the model of the market (oops, the trading system Pick 53,
100% accurate in all markets, cost $10 dollars from .... No money back
guaranty).
Yours, Alex.
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