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Since you did not answer my question:
> Have you computed his signals back to see how good he
> is?
I will start out by answering your statement. I would
say 30 times going 100% cash for an advisor is not RARE.
Lets take a cursory look at his recent record.
When he was 100% cash#
# 10/27/97 S & P 877
2/3/98 100% invested, Index 1006
Interim 25-75% invested
7/9/98 100% invested Index 1158 (close to the top)
# 8/10/98 Index 1083
10/21 100% invested. Index 1070
1/12 100% invested. Index 1240
4/26/99 100% invested. Index 1360 (missed the top
by 6 points)
Interim 25-75% invested
# 6/11/99 Index 1294
Would a buy and hold approach have produced better
results? More later.
Norman E.
JER3CUBE@xxxxxxx wrote:
>
> In a message dated 6/12/99 3:19:11 PM Eastern Daylight Time,
> ericrogers@xxxxxxxxxxxxx writes:
>
> <<
> Have you computed his signals back to see how good he
> is? I question if
> I want to take the advise of someone who shows the last
> signal in bonds on page one of his web page as 12/1/98
> but the last signal in his complete signal history is
> 12/31/98. He can not keep his web page straight,
> >>
> His historical signals are available at the site(www.fundadvisor.com)
> It is RARE that any advisor would go to 100% cash.
> YOU ARE ON NOTICE ,... if you remain long or enter a trade
> long.....in the face of warning.
> That doesn't mean you can't do it....of course you can.
> Merriman's system is largely mechanical using moving averages
> with differnet time frames. As a trend kicks in favorable and
> and is confirmed daily, weekly, monthly, etc. a postion is increased
> or decreased. A fourth system which he does not disclose is
> not related to moving averages.
>
> If still wanted to trade, I would work the short side.
> The stocks I screen are showing the following possible
> canidates AA, SBC,IR, and possibly IBM
> I ALWAYS use protective stops just above the recent high
> up to two days prior.
>
> Hope this helps.
> Tradesmart,
> GerryB/jer33:3
> eccl 1:9
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