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Bill and others:
After posting this I found additional data that went back to
1/95.Profit was $353,000 to 4/7/99 meaning about $176,000 was
hypothetically made from 1/95 to 4/7/98 or 2 and 1/3 years.So it
averaged $7000 per month over the full term and the max drawdown
stayed $21,700.I saw the trade by trades and they appear realistic.
By further way of clarification,this is an always in the market system
and has been a failure when tried as a day trading system because of
the need to constantly reset variables.
If I were trading this with $25,000 I would have been knocked out of
the box.Even $50,000 would be a little nervous.But mixing it with a
portfolio is something I am seriously considering.I now feel fortunate
to own the license now that I understand how to make it perform.I
originally bought it for day trading.But I still want to review it
with my "advisor" FM.
John
------------------ Reply Separator --------------------
Originally From: "bshumake" <bshumake@xxxxxxxxxxxx>
Subject: Re: Top Step S&P System
Date: 05/31/1999 05:15am
This is very interesting and, if true, says alot about human
expectations
when it comes to the game of speculation. $100,000.oo of trading
capital
per S&P contract is certainly reasonable given current daily
ranges/volatility. A $21,700.oo drawdown is certainly not an
unreasonable
drawdown especially if net profits were $177,900.oo, and still most
people
bailed. Assuming the facts are true, it indicates that most people
attempting to trade are doing so with way too little capital, or
cannot
emotionally handle very reasonable drawdowns.
The June issue of the Robb Report has an interesting article about
Terrance
Leon Jr., one of the worlds most consistently successful golf
hustlers.
Leon makes some points about golf wagering that I thought were very
applicable to the above paragraph and speculation in general. He
makes a
big point of the fact that even many of the worlds best professional
golfers are great golfers but poor gamblers. They can play a great
game
when they are playing for prize money, but wilt when exposed to what
Leon
calls real heat, the prospect that they might personally have to pay
off a
big number. The key to gambling at golf is: The winner is immune to
pressure, he can always play to his ability. The loser, no matter how
good a
golfer, can't. It's no different with speculation. Good systems are
only
half the equation, if even that. Being able to take the heat during
drawdowns and stick to the game plan is essential. And if you're
under
capitilized, which most traders are, it makes sticking to the game
plan even
more difficult, and losing almost a certainty.
All the Best !
Bill Shumake
----- Original Message -----
From: John Cappello <jvc689@xxxxxxx>
To: RealTraders Discussion Group <realtraders@xxxxxxxxxxxxxx>
Sent: Sunday, May 30, 1999 11:39 AM
Subject: Top Step S&P System
> FYI:
> About a month ago I spun a question re. any brokers with experience
> with the subject system.One response directed me to a broker
familiar
> who only trades it with $100,000 accounts.Performance summary showed
a
> net profit of $177,900 and drawdown of $21,700.There were only 56
> trades from 4/7/98 to 4/7/99.I was told most people dropped oout due
> to the drawdown unless they had a large account.
>
> Comments?
>
> John
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