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I once read the Spike -35 book. It looked good until you analyzed the numbers.
It counted break even as a win and did not allow for brokerage or slippage.
When this was taken into account the system was a loser.
<p>Doug
<p>ted stampeen wrote:
<blockquote TYPE=CITE> <b><font face="System"><font size=+1>I AM
curious as to why people dont trade the DOW or NASDAQ more, any thoughts
why??</font></font></b> <b><font face="System"><font size=+1>also has anyone
ever read anything by J.D. HAMON, GOT MY OMEGA MAG today
and see</font></font></b> <b><font face="System"><font size=+1>he has a
system for offer,, ya I know another one of many,, but it differs
a bit , in that it says its quite tradable for small accounts. says
a 5,000$$ account is do able, not the full portfolio, called THE
SPIKE-35 SYSTEM</font></font></b> <b><font face="System"><font size=+1><font color="#000000">i.e.</font>--
12 commodity portfolio- 1-lots- Ave 5k$ a week for 3yrs
52% correct------ gains are 3.4 times larger than losses
profit factor 3.67 to 1 past performance covered 1,619
trades, Ave profit-1,282, Ave loss $380<font color="#000000">
WORST MONTH showed a gain of <u>$$ 3,442.oo</u></font></font></font></b> <b><font face="System"><font size=+1>
all for the amazing low price of $100. 1yr $$ back,</font></font></b> <b><u><font face="System"><font size=+1>
</font></font>any thoughts besides sending U my $$$$</u></b></blockquote>
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</x-html>From ???@??? Tue May 25 17:56:05 1999
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Date: Thu, 20 May 1999 11:40:43 +0100
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From: "T-Bondtrader" <t-bondtrader@xxxxxxxxxxxxx>
To: RealTraders Discussion Group <realtraders@xxxxxxxxxxxxxx>
Subject: Re: GEN> THE DOW??? and a book
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>Why people think they can buy a computer, some software, and perhaps a
>trading system, and earn a living going head to head with professional
>traders is beyond my understanding.
If we are talking about fundamental traders, position players or anyone in
and around the pits, it would be quite clear to anyone that you would have
to have a considerable amount of training. You would also need to be
working for a house or someone with or have a sizeable bank account devoted
to trading. There is much to learn, if you are trying to forecast using
EW, fundamental data, government reports, statistics, etc, etc.. You have
an even bigger task ahead of you if you do this across a whole raft of
markets. The apprenticeship would be long and hard and damn near
perpetual - particularly with how waves work!
>From the many posts on this list by those making calls for the market to do
this or that or whatever, based on all of the above and more - and across a
whole sea of markets - it must be clear to the rest of us just how
difficult that job is. Just how many time are these people right? Just
how consistent have any of them been? But, then, most of the calls are
couched in 'if it does this... or if it does that... we could see... but
on the other hand... etc, etc, etc' I am quite sure that anyone trying
to forecast anything ahead of time in the market has to (if they are not to
make a fool of themselves) forecast in that way. But the question is, just
how much money can people make from it. That is the bottom line. Make
from it, consistently.
Small wonder, many come into this business looking for systems, programmes,
computer code, software packages and all the rest, to try and short cut
their learning curve. But you can't short cut learning to forecast and
learning how to trade that forecast and, as has been said a million times,
if there were such a system or means of forecasting consistently, it would
not be for sale. It would be in use, very privately.
But trading on a daily basis, as it happens, so that you can see where the
market is headed, and can see where it is reacting to what, is a wholly
different matter. Trading by technical analysis of the price action, as
the market makes its swings, makes it retracements and reversals, within a
pre-determined environment, can be learnt within months rather than years.
If someone picks just one market or group of markets and gets down to the
nitty-gritty of what that market is all about, how it operates, how the pit
works, finds out about the parameters within which the market works, etc,
etc, etc, he or she - sitting at a computer and studying all the charts -
will soon learn what is necessary to know to succeed. After much paper
trading and practice, including how to give what sort of order to the
broker, the newbie can tentatively get into the market. And, provided the
statistics of that market show the correct range, volatility, liquidity and
other important characteristics, there is a good chance the trader will
learn within a budget - either to succeed or find out it is not a business
for him/her.
But go and complicate that process with unnecessary bells and whistles on
the computer, in terms of systems, programmes and, yes, the dreaded lagging
indicators and it is going to end up being extremely difficult. Trading
is not being a brain surgeon, a vet, or other professional where long
training and experience count towards being proficient. That would be
upgrading the intellect for trading far too much. Learning to forecast
and trade it is something which very few people can do consistently well.
Learning to follow the market as it moves along and profit from it, is
another matter altogether - but, yes, you can't play golf while you do it.
It is very hard, concentrated work. But you can make a living out of it -
and quite a decent living, if you choose a market where you can dip in and
out at will, with virtually as many contracts as you like.
So...
While the forecasters and predictors of just a day or more ahead may need
years of experience, a mass of systems and the like and many markets to
make it worthwhile, the day trader can, with much effort and concentration,
learn the very simple techniques necessary to bread on the table - and they
can learn that within months, not years. It just sometimes takes years to
find that out, I'm afraid!
Bill Eykyn
www.t-bondtrader.com
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