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In a message dated 5/18/99 6:26:15 PM Eastern Daylight Time,
eadamy@xxxxxxxxxx writes:
<< The fact that we couldn't decisively move up through 118^03 (excepting a
few
Fed announcement earlybirds) seems pretty serious. My long term historical
work points at 6.10% and your 8/points per 1% works out to about 116+. Using
a weekly chart, I'm assuming w4 was completed on 4/9 and we are now in w5.
If the decline holds above 116 (w3 * 62% around 116^10) then we could be
completing a corrective ABC which should mean a resumption of the bull
trend. Anything much lower and I have to think we are in the initial stages
of a bear market which probably means 5.5-5.7% will be at the bottom of the
rate range. What makes this dicey to figure is the nagging intermarket
relationship that such a large increase in rates should be bad for equities
and a tanking equities market should be great for bonds. Fortunately, we
only have to trade it one day at a time.
Earl
>>
god morning all
would not short bonds yet
it is still in oversold condition
will wait for 11820-119 area false rally
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