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Agreed Earl. For now, it is starting to look as if 116-29 might be s-t
bottom (wave-3), but need to really get past 118-08/23 to feel comfy
w/that thinking. If so, 120/122 become possible. Could be A-B-C as you
noted also. That fits with my long term futures charts, but not with my
long term cash charts which I consider more important. Prefer 5th wave
drop into 116/112 range (no idea where as yet). Long term trend lines
from a few years back in low-115s and going back to 1984 in low-112s.
Steve
--
Steven W. Poser, President
Poser Global Market Strategies Inc.
http://www.poserglobal.com
Earl Adamy wrote:
>
> The fact that we couldn't decisively move up through 118^03 (excepting a few
> Fed announcement earlybirds) seems pretty serious. My long term historical
> work points at 6.10% and your 8/points per 1% works out to about 116+. Using
> a weekly chart, I'm assuming w4 was completed on 4/9 and we are now in w5.
> If the decline holds above 116 (w3 * 62% around 116^10) then we could be
> completing a corrective ABC which should mean a resumption of the bull
> trend. Anything much lower and I have to think we are in the initial stages
> of a bear market which probably means 5.5-5.7% will be at the bottom of the
> rate range. What makes this dicey to figure is the nagging intermarket
> relationship that such a large increase in rates should be bad for equities
> and a tanking equities market should be great for bonds. Fortunately, we
> only have to trade it one day at a time.
>
> Earl
>
> ----- Original Message -----
> From: swp <swp@xxxxxxxxxx>
> To: <eadamy@xxxxxxxxxx>
> Cc: RealTraders Discussion Group <realtraders@xxxxxxxxxxxxxx>
> Sent: Monday, May 17, 1999 12:24 PM
> Subject: Re: June T-Bonds
>
> > A move toward 118-03 should be possible, if we cannot, we've got big
> > problems s-t. This, to me, is dead cat bounce. Open interest FELL in
> > June bonds on Friday (though rose in 5s, 10s and big time in Sep, but
> > o.i. there is tiny - spread trades??). There are few shorts to cover in
> > bonds. Seasonals not too good for second half of May either, though
> > excellent in early June. Targets in the 116/115 range make sense. Not
> > sure if that will represent end of wave-3 or wave-5. Too soon to tell.
> > Fed should tighten bias, but that is expected. If we sell off on that,
> > and there is no hike (unlikely), that says this market is super weak.
> >
> > If this next drop is end of five waves, rally back to upper-120s is even
> > possible. If it is end of three, then a four or five point pop is due
> > and then drop to Earl's target areas below 112. Long term trend line
> > near 115-12 I think, is support for this week. Momentum divergence on
> > daily chart (RSI, 14-day) a concern for bears. Need sharp drop to avoid
> > reassessing this as wave-5 and not wave-3.
> >
> > Steve Poser
> > --
> > Steven W. Poser, President
> > Poser Global Market Strategies Inc.
> > http://www.poserglobal.com
> >
> >
> >
> > Earl Adamy wrote:
> > >
> > > Here's a classic progressive bullish triangle and wedge. The horizontal
> line
> > > and first upward sloping trendline defined the initial bounds of the
> bullish
> > > triangle. Note the deep penetration of the up sloping trendline with
> close
> > > above the trendline - this is a signal to get long as stops just under
> the
> > > sloping line are cleared. Next we touched the horizontal line again and
> came
> > > back to a higher low below the first trendline - an initial sign of
> weakness
> > > and opportunity to tighten the stop. The second (lower) upward sloping
> > > trendline defines a new triangle and the down sloping line across the
> pivot
> > > highs defines a wedge - note how the down sloping line provided steady
> > > resistance. The general indication here is of a relatively weak market
> which
> > > has difficulty overcoming even light resistance (the down sloping line).
> > > This is not to say that we will not eventually get a breakout but is a
> sign
> > > one should be monitoring stops carefully.
> > >
> > > Edwards & McGee notes that triangles which progress into the point are
> very
> > > prone to failure.
> > >
> > > Earl
> > >
> > > ----- Original Message -----
> > > From: Earl Adamy <eadamy@xxxxxxxxxx>
> > > To: RealTraders Discussion Group <realtraders@xxxxxxxxxxxxxx>
> > > Sent: Monday, May 17, 1999 7:49 AM
> > > Subject: Re: June T-Bonds
> > >
> > > > I have the 38% retracement of Friday's decline at 118^00 and the 100%
> > > > projection using the L/H/L pivots on the 15 minute chart at 118^03. A
> > > rally
> > > > failure short of the 100% projection would be extremely negative,
> > > signaling
> > > > a high likelihood that Friday's low will not hold. Such a failure
> would be
> > > > confirmed by taking out the 117^07 pivot low. As a guess, I would
> suspect
> > > > that we need to rally to the 62% retracement area at 118^23 to have a
> > > decent
> > > > chance of holding Friday's low. Keep in mind that all of this is off
> > > > Friday's action only while ignoring all which came before - an
> extremely
> > > > limited view.
> > >
> >
> ------------------------------------------------------------------------
> > > Name: USJUNE.gif
> > > USJUNE.gif Type: GIF Image (image/gif)
> > > Encoding: base64
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