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<DIV><FONT face="Comic Sans MS" size=2>Does anyone know where I can get my hands
on a manual called Time Trend III by Gerald Appel??</FONT></DIV>
<DIV> </DIV>
<DIV><FONT face="Comic Sans MS" size=2>Any help would be great.</FONT></DIV>
<DIV> </DIV>
<DIV><FONT face="Comic Sans MS" size=2>Thanks</FONT></DIV>
<DIV><FONT face="Comic Sans MS" size=2>Rob</FONT></DIV></BODY></HTML>
</x-html>From ???@??? Tue May 18 20:09:28 1999
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From: "BL" <blee3@xxxxxxxxxxxxx>
To: RealTraders Discussion Group <realtraders@xxxxxxxxxxxxxx>
Subject: Position Sizing Questions
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<DIV><FONT color=#000000 size=2>Having read Van Tharp's recent TASC article and
book on position sizing, I am puzzled by some of his comments. Among other
things, he states that one needs a minimium of $50,000 to trade the S&P 500
futures market from a proper position sizing perspective. Also, he states
that 1% -2% risking of total equity on any given trade is decent as well.
My question is as follows: If I want to put $50,000 at risk and plan to
risk 1.5% on any given trade, I am risking ($50,000)(1.5%) = $750 on each
trade. Another of his examples recommends placing a stop at 3 times the 10
day average volatility of the Index as measured by True Range. Let's just
assume that the 10 day average of True Range = 25 Index Points. If I enter
a trade, I will be placing a stop (3)(25 points) = 75 points away from my entry
price. If stopped out, my loss would be (75 points)($250) = $18,750
disregarding commissions and slippage. This is over 10 times my allowable
$750 limit established above. Based on these numbers, one should not even
trade a single S&P mini contract if they only have $50,000 to risk. Am
I misinterpreting something here. Comments? - Thanks, Brian
</FONT></DIV></BODY></HTML>
</x-html>From ???@??? Tue May 18 20:21:34 1999
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Date: Tue, 18 May 1999 22:16:44 -0500
Reply-To: "charles meyer" <chmeyer@xxxxxxxx>
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From: "charles meyer" <chmeyer@xxxxxxxx>
To: RealTraders Discussion Group <realtraders@xxxxxxxxxxxxxx>
Subject: Re: Gerald Appel's Time Trend III
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<DIV><FONT color=#000000 size=2>Rob:</FONT></DIV>
<DIV><FONT color=#000000 size=2></FONT> </DIV>
<DIV><FONT size=2>I can't help you but even if you have it you would probably be
disappointed.</FONT></DIV>
<DIV><FONT size=2>Appel has since revised this model and is no longer trading
TT3. He is</FONT></DIV>
<DIV><FONT size=2>now trading the new improved version and it is
proprietary. You can</FONT></DIV>
<DIV><FONT size=2>however get the signals by subscribing to his
newsletter.</FONT></DIV>
<DIV><FONT size=2></FONT> </DIV>
<DIV><FONT size=2>Charles</FONT></DIV>
<BLOCKQUOTE
style="BORDER-LEFT: #000000 solid 2px; MARGIN-LEFT: 5px; PADDING-LEFT: 5px">
<DIV><FONT face=Arial size=2><B>-----Original Message-----</B><BR><B>From:
</B>S&P 500 <<A
href="mailto:sp500@xxxxxxxxxxxxxx";>sp500@xxxxxxxxxxxxxx</A>><BR><B>To:
</B>RealTraders Discussion Group <<A
href="mailto:realtraders@xxxxxxxxxxxxxx";>realtraders@xxxxxxxxxxxxxx</A>><BR><B>Date:
</B>Tuesday, May 18, 1999 10:00 PM<BR><B>Subject: </B>Gerald Appel's Time
Trend III<BR><BR></DIV></FONT>
<DIV><FONT face="Comic Sans MS" size=2>Does anyone know where I can get my
hands on a manual called Time Trend III by Gerald Appel??</FONT></DIV>
<DIV> </DIV>
<DIV><FONT face="Comic Sans MS" size=2>Any help would be great.</FONT></DIV>
<DIV> </DIV>
<DIV><FONT face="Comic Sans MS" size=2>Thanks</FONT></DIV>
<DIV><FONT face="Comic Sans MS"
size=2>Rob</FONT></DIV></BLOCKQUOTE></BODY></HTML>
</x-html>From ???@??? Tue May 18 18:31:24 1999
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Date: Tue, 18 May 1999 20:19:29 -0700
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From: "Peter M. Beckwith" <capstone@xxxxxxxxxxxxxxx>
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Subject: Re: Niederhoffer
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<DIV><FONT size=2>After reading his book, "The Education of a
Speculator", I came away with the feeling that he really was a "risk
taker" who had little concern for risk management. In one of the
sections in his book he describes a series of currency trades where he is just
barely holding on and he is picturing his bankrupt life if the trades do not go
his way. Let me be the first to say that if I were a big time money
manager and I described in a book that was obviously supposed to be self
aggrandizing, that I was risking everything on a series of high risk currency
trades that I would be pretty embarassed.</FONT></DIV>
<DIV><FONT size=2></FONT> </DIV>
<DIV><FONT size=2>When I heard in Oct, 97, probably a couple of months after I
finished the book that he had liquidated his fund and had shafted all of his
investors, I could not help but feel that his type of trading was completely
insane. It is one thing for a small lot trader to dabble in the naked
options writing during a downtrend, but it is an entirely other matter for a guy
who probably hit the options market with several thousand naked contracts.
All I know is that when there is a guy who is trading with size and he is
selling naked options that some savvy and well capatilized trading group could
have run the market down even further to force liquidations. I honestly
believe that this may have happened on that fateful day in Oct, 97. Anyone
who is interested should look at the VIX data from that day where the premiums
rose to 55 for a bried period during the AM. No question that the guys who
took the other side of the trade probably made enough to retire on. But by
the same token they probably hedged.</FONT></DIV>
<DIV><FONT size=2></FONT> </DIV>
<DIV><FONT size=2>What I do not understand is why did Niederhoffer not offset
his trades by selling futures to take care of some of the risk. He easily
could have avoided those catastophic losses had he simply hit the sp market.
That seems like a strategy.</FONT></DIV>
<DIV><FONT size=2></FONT> </DIV>
<DIV><FONT size=2>Regards</FONT></DIV>
<DIV><FONT size=2></FONT> </DIV>
<DIV><FONT size=2>Pete Beckwith</FONT></DIV></BODY></HTML>
</x-html>From ???@??? Tue May 18 20:35:13 1999
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Subject: The Nirvana Club
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<DIV><FONT color=#000000 size=2>I contacted Ed Downs several months back
expressing an interest in their club and the ARM2 knowledge base. He
advised me someone would be contacting me. Nothing. Did get a nice
flyer telling me how great the system is. I did notice some people in my
area were listed as members. Contacted Nirvana again to get in touch with
these folks. Nothing, nada, zip.</FONT></DIV>
<DIV><FONT color=#000000 size=2></FONT> </DIV>
<DIV><FONT color=#000000 size=2>So the questions are:</FONT></DIV>
<DIV><FONT color=#000000 size=2></FONT> </DIV>
<DIV><FONT color=#000000 size=2> 1) Is there anyone here using
their ARM2 system?</FONT></DIV>
<DIV><FONT color=#000000 size=2> 2) Are you
satisified.</FONT></DIV>
<DIV><FONT color=#000000 size=2> 2) If yes can we
talk.</FONT></DIV>
<DIV><FONT color=#000000 size=2></FONT> </DIV>
<DIV><FONT size=2>I would love to see the system in action. Looking for
any users in Northern California, East Bay prefered. To keep the bandwidth
down you can Email direct to: <A
href="mailto:animal@xxxxxxxxx";>animal@xxxxxxxxx</A></FONT></DIV>
<DIV><FONT size=2></FONT> </DIV>
<DIV><FONT size=2>Thanks</FONT></DIV></BODY></HTML>
</x-html>From ???@??? Tue May 18 20:35:35 1999
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From: "Animal" <animal@xxxxxxxxx>
To: "Realtraders User Group" <realtraders@xxxxxxxxxxxxxx>,
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Subject: The Nirvana Club
Date: Tue, 18 May 1999 20:30:06 -0700
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<DIV><FONT color=#000000 size=2>I contacted Ed Downs several months back
expressing an interest in their club and the ARM2 knowledge base. He
advised me someone would be contacting me. Nothing. Did get a nice
flyer telling me how great the system is. I did notice some people in my
area were listed as members. Contacted Nirvana again to get in touch with
these folks. Nothing, nada, zip.</FONT></DIV>
<DIV><FONT color=#000000 size=2></FONT> </DIV>
<DIV><FONT color=#000000 size=2>So the questions are:</FONT></DIV>
<DIV><FONT color=#000000 size=2></FONT> </DIV>
<DIV><FONT color=#000000 size=2> 1) Is there anyone here using
their ARM2 system?</FONT></DIV>
<DIV><FONT color=#000000 size=2> 2) Are you
satisified.</FONT></DIV>
<DIV><FONT color=#000000 size=2> 2) If yes can we
talk.</FONT></DIV>
<DIV><FONT color=#000000 size=2></FONT> </DIV>
<DIV><FONT size=2>I would love to see the system in action. Looking for
any users in Northern California, East Bay prefered. To keep the bandwidth
down you can Email direct to: <A
href="mailto:animal@xxxxxxxxx";>animal@xxxxxxxxx</A></FONT></DIV>
<DIV><FONT size=2></FONT> </DIV>
<DIV><FONT size=2>Thanks</FONT></DIV></BODY></HTML>
</x-html>From ???@??? Tue May 18 20:47:46 1999
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heating oil, gasoline, and dioesel are dead, and heading down!
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