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As this is the only instrument I trade, I am pleased to see some discussion
about the June contract. So far, most of it has centred around position
play. Whether or not it has reached an EW number, or whatever, and whether
from that, the market will go up or down - short term, long term, whatever.
Clearly, there is also discussion on such fundamentals as the potential of
an interest rate movement - as with the FOMC meeting today. As a result,
each of the participants have come, I assume, to a decision as to what they
think the market is going to do - and then they are going to trade it.
Yes?
What I would really like to know is exactly how you guys trade, once you
have come to your conclusions. As a day trader only, I do find this the
interesting part. Do you enter the market on the open? After the opening
range? When? Do you have to take the night session into account and
could that alter your decision, anyway? As I see it, each bar is basically
a day, whereas for me each bar is in minutes.
You must presumably have quite a drawdown ability and margin contentions to
consider - and trading with stops is a whole different ball game.
Furthermore, I wonder how many use an actual mechanical system and how that
blends in with the technical analysis beforehand?
It seems quite clear to me that with this longer term play, there are bound
to be all sorts of opinions, based on all manner of factors and that the
best hope has to be to get in on a trend - and make it your friend to the
end! The capital outlay to do this, on just a small number of contracts,
must be quite considerable.
>From this it would seem that positional players are clearly in a different
financial league to the day traders. I assume that it is more wealthy
people playing with money set aside, rather than money set aside to earning
a living, and, hopefully become wealthy.
Following from this, we have a set of people who are interested in other
people's opinion of the market and where it might go (playing with money
that, let us say, is 'not essential' to the family living), and another
group of people, who do not want anyone's opinion on where the market might
go, but only need to know how to flow with the market during its daily ebbs
and flows and be able to act and react to these moves, profitably.
So we have two totally different stances, requiring totally different
information to help each type of player take money out of the market. One
uses predictive tools, and feeds on other people's views as part of their
decision making process, while the other cannot afford to rely on either -
furthermore, the former has more ability to systemize their trading,
whereas the latter trades at a speed which almost makes that impossible.
I suspect that one makes more money, from more money, while the other makes
less with less, to earn a living.
It is interesting, therefore, but not so surprising, that the discussion,
so far as I can see, has centred around position players rather than day
traders, which begs the obvious question...
Are you living to play, or playing to live? The answer could be important
to you, so ponder it while the market goes sideways waiting for Greenspan
to decide...
Bill Eykyn
www.t-bondtrader.com
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