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I have the 38% retracement of Friday's decline at 118^00 and the 100%
projection using the L/H/L pivots on the 15 minute chart at 118^03. A rally
failure short of the 100% projection would be extremely negative, signaling
a high likelihood that Friday's low will not hold. Such a failure would be
confirmed by taking out the 117^07 pivot low. As a guess, I would suspect
that we need to rally to the 62% retracement area at 118^23 to have a decent
chance of holding Friday's low. Keep in mind that all of this is off
Friday's action only while ignoring all which came before - an extremely
limited view.
All of this seems to have put the incipient rally in the European currencies
on hold, aggravated the decline in the Yen, and stopped the correction in
the dollar dead in its tracks.
Earl
----- Original Message -----
From: Bob Hunt <RHunt.066@xxxxxxxxxxxxxxxx>
To: RealTraders Discussion Group <realtraders@xxxxxxxxxxxxxx>
Sent: Monday, May 17, 1999 6:03 AM
Subject: Re: June T-Bonds
> The ideal scenario for today's trading would be for price to start the
> morning off with a normal corrective reaction towards one of the
> resistance levels above current price. The first would come in at the
> 5 min. 20EMA, which starts the day at 117-16. Next is the 15 min.
> 20EMA at 117-19 and a Friday intraday pivot high at 117-21. The 5/12
> low comes in at 117-22. Another Friday intraday pivot high level
> exists at 117-25. The 30 min. 20EMA comes in at 117-30 as well as 2
> intraday pivot highs from Friday. Directly above that is the 118-02
> Daily Pivot. A short entry on a price reversal pattern or oscillator
> divergence from anyone of these levels will give us a hefty profit if
> price can make it all the way down to Friday's 116-29 low. If such a
> move can be confirmed by oscillator behavior, there should be even
> more downside in the making.
>
> Although not expected, if price can create a convincing double bottom
> off a test of Friday's 116-29 low, we have to entertain more bullish
> thoughts. The probabilities, however, of a V-bottom forming after such
> a severe decline are extremely slim.
>
> Bob Hunt
> E-Mail: RHunt.066@xxxxxxxxxxxxxxxx
> Web Site: http://home.att.net/~rhunt.066
>
> -----------------------------------------------------
> Statement of disclaimer: This information was compiled from sources
> believed to be reliable, but its accuracy cannot be guaranteed. There
> is substantial risk of loss in futures trading. There is no warranty,
> express or implied, in regards to the fitness of this information for
> any particular purpose. Past performance is not a guarantee of future
> results.
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