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Proffittak@xxxxxxx wrote:
>
> congratultions to earl and steve posner for forcasting 117-118 in
> june bonds
>
> this was 2-4 weeks ago!!!!
>
> any idea of were we go from here
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I realize that this question was asked more from a position trading
perspective, but from a day-trading viewpoint, Friday's action caused
several system signals to fire, with specific implications for today's
trading.
First is the Wide Range Reversal To The Downside. This signal is
activated when three conditions have been satisfied: 1) the high of
the day is the highest high of the last five, 2) the trading range of
the day is the widest range of the last five, and 3) the close is
within the bottom 25% of the day's range. This signal typically marks
significant market turning points.
Second is the Low Range Close signal, indicating that Friday's close
was within 20% of the day's range. This suggests an 80-85% chance that
today's low will be less than Friday's.
We have no economic releases of significance scheduled for today. Keep
in mind that the FOMC meeting is scheduled for Tuesday. Friday's
surprising jump in the CPI could cause player's to be nervous about
the possibility of a tightening bias on the part of the Fed.
The weight of the evidence is pointing towards continued weakness in
T-Bonds for today. The Low Range Close signal puts the odds in favor
of price exceeding Friday's 116-29 low. The Wide Range Reversal To The
Downside signal is telling us that Friday's high was a significant
one, and should most likely hold for at least several more days to
come.
The ideal scenario for today's trading would be for price to start the
morning off with a normal corrective reaction towards one of the
resistance levels above current price. The first would come in at the
5 min. 20EMA, which starts the day at 117-16. Next is the 15 min.
20EMA at 117-19 and a Friday intraday pivot high at 117-21. The 5/12
low comes in at 117-22. Another Friday intraday pivot high level
exists at 117-25. The 30 min. 20EMA comes in at 117-30 as well as 2
intraday pivot highs from Friday. Directly above that is the 118-02
Daily Pivot. A short entry on a price reversal pattern or oscillator
divergence from anyone of these levels will give us a hefty profit if
price can make it all the way down to Friday's 116-29 low. If such a
move can be confirmed by oscillator behavior, there should be even
more downside in the making.
Although not expected, if price can create a convincing double bottom
off a test of Friday's 116-29 low, we have to entertain more bullish
thoughts. The probabilities, however, of a V-bottom forming after such
a severe decline are extremely slim.
Bob Hunt
E-Mail: RHunt.066@xxxxxxxxxxxxxxxx
Web Site: http://home.att.net/~rhunt.066
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Statement of disclaimer: This information was compiled from sources
believed to be reliable, but its accuracy cannot be guaranteed. There
is substantial risk of loss in futures trading. There is no warranty,
express or implied, in regards to the fitness of this information for
any particular purpose. Past performance is not a guarantee of future
results.
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