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>From what I see on the graph you sent, there is no damage to the up trend till
point D is taken out and no major damage till point B is violated. Otherwise
it looks like a normal correction in an up market. The bonds are still above
the 2/3 retracement and I have a support level at ~116+/-. This number seems
to correlate with a 50% retracement from the 1994 low. My overall projection
for this down move is 108-20 +/-, which is just above the 96 and 97 lows, and
that still won't break level D on your graph. Looks like you will have to wait
for the second leg down to get the jolt you are looking for. Once again, not a
trading recommendation, just information. Ira.
Stig Olausson wrote:
> It looks like the list is down in the gutters again, so I'll try to divert
> the focus to the market again....
>
> With regard to "my" H&S pattern some time agao, we had a break of the
> neckline on above average volume last tuesday, a few dawndays and then a
> test of the neckline thursday with an impressive downday yesterday(friday)
> on impressive volume.
> The way I look at TA this is a close to perfect break of a H&S pattern,
> suggesting declining in the future (perhaps even 104?)
>
> If you look at the monthly gif chart we find some very interesting
> things.There a "tons" of indicators pointing to a TURN upwards in price.
> But it didn't happen - so, as so many times before we get a dramatic
> decelopment to the other side.
>
> We had mega resistence in the 120 -118 area.
> 50% retracement of the D-E rise at S
> 38,2% retrarement of the B-E rise at S
>
> A trend line from the two A and C tops also generated good support
> Some candlestick patterns also suggested turning prices
>
> Time wise we see that the important bottoms of oct 87 and nov 94 as well as
> the important top of april 86 were dynamically pointing to a turn around
> April 99.
>
> A large group of planetary aspects took place in the April/May period,
> also pointin to change in trend.
> As per Supertraders Almanac there is a 10 year seasonal pattern of RISING
> prices from April to July 1st. AND a perfect 5 year seasonal UPTREND from
> beg May to July 1st.
> I think I have read somewhere that seasonals can Invert (?) perhaps that's
> what we see here?
>
> In other words, we "SHOULD" have had higher prices, not only short term,
> but the monthly chart also indicates this is serious. If you look closely
> you will also find the riing wedge pattern. (The potential in THAT pattern
> IF broken, I will not mention on this list to avoid future hate
> mail....<g>).
>
> These are only observations the way I see the market and is not ment as a
> recommendation. Perhaps it should not even be taken seriously, since I am
> not a successful trader. ( I ran out of trading capital a few months
> ago...).
> stig
>
> ------------------------------------------------------------------------
> Name: bonds.gif
> bonds.gif Type: GIF Image (image/gif)
> Encoding: base64
> Description: bonds (Paint Shop Pro 5 Image)
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