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merv:
any soros fund bet may be consistent with his recent remarks that "the worst
is over" as far as the worldwide economic turmoil of the last few years.
Technically speaking:
1) If you use April 95 as the turning point in the dollar, then in the DX
index you have a good Elliott Wave structure, with wave 3 topping august 98,
w4 bottoming in Oct, and a weak wave 5 currently reaching a double-top
peaking area. With even money of reaching the DX wave three high around 102
set in Aug 98.
2) the above coincides with the JY reaching a w5 bottom in Aug 98, and the DM
currently approaching a w5 bottom in a tight downward regression channel.
The SF is mapping out a triple bottom at this time. One elliot count calls
for a new low, but marginally so.
3) Third-world currencies have rallied substantially from their post-crash
bottoms and int'l portfolio money is now rushing into their stock markets, a
trend likely to continue for perhaps several years.
If portfolio preference is shifting towards non-US markets, and economic
recoveries will create greater non-US local demands for non-US currencies,
the fundamental analysis will leave us looking squarely at the US trade
deficit and over-extended technical charts.....
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