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Re: Soros



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merv:
any soros fund bet may be consistent with his recent remarks that "the worst 
is over" as far as the worldwide economic turmoil of the last few years.      
                 

Technically speaking:

1) If you use April 95 as the turning point in the dollar, then in the DX 
index you have a good Elliott Wave structure, with wave 3 topping august 98, 
w4 bottoming in Oct, and a weak wave 5 currently reaching a double-top 
peaking area. With even money of reaching the DX wave three high around 102 
set in Aug 98.

2) the above coincides with the JY reaching a w5 bottom in Aug 98, and the DM 
currently approaching a w5 bottom in a tight downward regression channel.  
The SF is mapping out a triple bottom at this time.  One elliot count calls 
for a new low, but marginally so.

3) Third-world currencies have rallied substantially from their post-crash 
bottoms and int'l portfolio money is now rushing into their stock markets, a 
trend likely to continue for perhaps several years.

If portfolio preference is shifting towards non-US markets, and economic 
recoveries will create greater non-US local demands for non-US currencies, 
the fundamental analysis will leave us looking squarely at the US trade 
deficit and over-extended technical charts.....