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My name is Jean Comeau from Quebec, Canada and I am a commodity trading
advisor (CTA) registered in Chicago. I have studied the stock market in a
technical way for over 25 years and with a detailed technical analysis
which follows, I have come to the conclusion that a stock market crash this
year (l999) is inevitable.
The Dow Jones Industrial average should hit 11550 to 11600 points on an
intraday basis and a crash will then be triggerred. Since we are almost
there, I took the liberty to write the following as to perhaps help others
to make a decision in regards to whether stay in or bail out of the market
before the iceberg is finally hit...
In order to understand more clearly the main core of the following
analysis, I shall begin by refering to pionners in terms of researches in
the technical analysis field.
ELLIOT (Wave Theory): a market trend usually moves in 5 waves UP and then
3 waves DOWN and so on...
FIBONNACCI (Perfect Numbers): .382 and .6l8
1-2-3-5-8-13-21-34-55-89-144 etc...
These numbers play a major role in technical analyses of any sort when it
comes to mathematical calculations.
W.D. GANN (Square Rule): Time and price (space) meet at a turning point or
as in this case the square root of 34 as it will be demonstrated.
Now, let us go back in l929 to possibly obtain a better comprehension of
the last major WAVES DOWN of the crash that occurred then and realise why
the enormous potential for it to repeat is just around the corner.
CRASH OF 1929 - 3 waves down
October 1929 = High or end of previous major 5 waves up = Dow touches 382
points or Fibonnacci .382
Then,
CRASH - Wave 1 = Within 2 months from the high (382), the Dow touches 200
for a total move down of 182 points.
CRASH - Wave 2 = Within the following 6 months, the market recovered to 290
or 90 points gain. Here, notice that half of the retracement is made back
up from the original 182 points down(wave 1).
CRASH - Wave 3 = Finally in June 1932 (after 34 months from the high), the
market touches the 43 points level and establish the end of the major bear
market.
NOTE: For any wave to be confirmed as fitting the picture, the market will
usually and normally retrace half of the last move either up or down from
the previous major low or high which it actually did in Crash - Wave 2.
NOW, ON THE WAY UP...
WAVE 1 = 1972 (last quarter) D.J. hits 1051
WAVE 2 = 1974 (last quarter) D.J. hits 577
In this case, the total move down is 474 points or half retracement from 43
(l932 low) to (l972 high) 105l.
WAVE 3 = 1987 (August) D.J. hits 2746 (intraday basis)
WAVE 4 = 1987 (October) D.J. hits 1616 (intraday basis)
In this case, the total move down is 1130 points or half retracement from
1974 low or 577 to high of 2746.
WAVE 5 = WHEN DOW JONES HITS 11550 TO 11600 POINTS. END OF MAJOR BULL
MARKET, PERIOD.
We achieve our goal by using Fibonnacci numbers as follows:
Wave 1 or l972 = Fibonnacci number 3 times 339 which is the total down move
of the last crash (1929) totals up to 1017 plus 43 (crash low) equals 1060
and the actual high in 1972 was 1051.
Wave 3 or 1987 = Fibonnacci number 8 times 339 equals 2712 plus 43 (crash
low) equals 2745 and the actual high in 1987 was 2746.
Wave 5 or l999 = Fibonnacci number 34 times 339 equals 11526 plus 43 (crash
low)
equals 11569.
Also note: W.D. Gann Square rule is now in full strength 34 times 340
(square root of 34) = 11560. Note that the number 339 was rounded up to
340.
When that number is hit, the 3 waves down will be in an effective mode. We
are to expect then that THE MARKET WILL DROP FROM 5500 to 6000 POINTS
within the following 2 months (half of retracement of full move from 43 to
11569) which will signal the very next GREAT GREAT DEPRESSION and a
rendez-vous with destiny and Y2K...
There are many more technical analyses that add up to similar results which
also reveal the exact same story. At this point, this present exercise
seemed to me more realistic for an immediate comprehension of the matter.
Ex: Twice 34 (Fibo) years from l932 to 2000
13 (Fibo) years from l974 leads us to l987 (Note: a cycle bottom to
top or top to
bottom
usually repeats twice only
when
properly measured.
13 (Fibo) years from 1987 leads us to 2000...
I sincerely hope that this will help,
best regards to all,
Jean Comeau
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