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hi as a young trader my bank put me on comex arbitrage 10 yrs ago i saw gold
really rocking and rolling moves of 10 usd a day was small , saw 80 usd in
one day mkts change gold is obeselete if the central banks lease gold miners
hedge future production
all the centrasl banks are loaded with gold
as we said in the mkt when you feel bullish for gold lie down and let the
feeling pass
if gold breaks 276 it just reconfirms that the move to 289 was for suckers
still believing in the gold myth
if you like gold buy the cash and buy a gold put that is your stop.... why
do guys buy gold calls biggest waste of money if as they have high
volatility, us intrest rate contango on it so you are throwing money
away..... if you fancy gold buy some option for peanuts only a year 2000
catastpophe can lift this
gold is a nonevent... the banks thta are left have big positions because the
moves are too small to justify putting money in this friday 9 usd move was
big for sure and like every move in 5 years was down soras and goldsmith
lifted gold from 320 to 360 becoz they had the money and balls to ramp it up
-----Original Message-----
From: Earl Adamy <eadamy@xxxxxxxxxx>
To: RealTraders Discussion Group <realtraders@xxxxxxxxxxxxxx>
Date: Saturday, May 08, 1999 7:00 PM
Subject: FUT Gold, is the game up?
>I keep a simple little ratio (London PM Gold Fix / XAU) and when the ratio
>hits extreme low levels (around .20) I buy gold funds and when it hits
>neutral to extreme high levels (.35) , I sell. The most recent buy signals
>were in late Sep 98 and late Mar 99. In each case the ratio rose sharply
(as
>XAU rallied sharply) hitting neutral levels within 30 days. After Friday's
>12% sell-off in the XAU (after a near 30% rise), the ratio remains below
the
>neutral level. The general historical pattern on weekly charts has been
that
>once the ratio reaches extreme low levels that the ratio eventually (12+
>months) approaches extreme high levels. Another interesting pattern on the
>weekly charts has been the proclivity of the ratio to reach the extreme
high
>level shortly before a major correction in the equities market. Finally,
the
>XAU tends to lead the price of gold.
>
>Now comes the Bank of England telling the world they are liquidating their
>gold and gold futures tank falling to a 78.6% retracement of the recent
>rally before recovering modestly. So is the game up? I don't think so. Any
>other opinions?
>
>Earl
>
>
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