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<DIV><FONT size=2>BTW, if any of you are running the or_patch, or security block
bypass program, this is not necessary since there are no SSI_ACT
settings.</FONT></DIV>
<DIV> </DIV>
<DIV><FONT size=2>Richard Chehovin</FONT></DIV></BODY></HTML>
</x-html>From ???@??? Wed May 05 10:56:57 1999
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Subject: Re: I refere to earl adamy "june bonds " message
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<DIV>RT's,</DIV>
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<DIV>I posted a forecast once. I was dead wrong. I didn't make that mistake
again (at least not yet). I really admire those that stick their neck out, it
does take guts. </DIV>
<DIV> </DIV>
<DIV>Our friend from Switzerland is either very smart (pumping this list for
whatever information she can get or she is living in a world of her own making).
Anyone that reads someone's forecast off the internet and trades it is asking
for it. In fact 6 out of every 10 traders (9 out of ten that are not on the RT
list) are going to lose money in the markets. Deal with it, don't put good money
after bad, stop trading if you are losing! Take responsibility for your trading
don't blame anyone but yourself. You are responsibile for yourself, grow
up.</DIV>
<DIV> </DIV>
<DIV>Brent </DIV>
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<DIV> </DIV>
<DIV> </DIV>
<DIV><FONT face=Arial size=2><B>-----Original
Message-----</B><BR></FONT></DIV></BODY></HTML>
</x-html>From ???@??? Wed May 05 11:25:26 1999
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From: Jeffrey Harteam <jharteam@xxxxxxxxxxxxxx>
To: RealTraders Discussion Group <realtraders@xxxxxxxxxxxxxx>
Subject: Re: Dollar Index
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Stewart Taylor wrote:
> I know that there is interest in the Dollar.... I sent a note to my
> Institutional clients earlier today with a brief technical comment, a trade
> recommendation and a daily/weekly chart of the index. The set up is really
> a pretty one and I would be happy to share it with you.
>
> COMMENT:
>
> I have been watching a very nice setup developing in the Dollar index. I
> view the Dollar as the lynch pin market..... A lower Dollar will translate
> to higher gold, higher CRB, lower bond prices and eventually lower
> equities.
>
> Without going into a lot of technical detail, there is good reason to
> believe that both SF and DM are bottoming and the technical setup on the
> Weekly Dollar Index (poor volume, wedging up,overbought etc.) supports
> this. I estimate that chances are 75-85% that the index will break lower
> and the risk reward in the trade is very very good.
>
> JUNE DOLLAR INDEX: Has been wedging up, volume has been poor, there is poor
> result of
> effort, there are three drives to a high.... a bunch of stuff I like. The
> only thing lacking has been bearish thrust below an appropriate trigger. I
> think that today's break below the trend line/trigger line qualifies
> nicely. ADDITIONALLY: Volatility in the currencies has declined to the
> point where a large expansion in vol. is likely. Anyway, I see two ways to
> play:
>
> 1) Sell a small initial position (DX9M) at the market (particularly if the
> contract moves to new daily lows). Place the initial stop just above the
> recent highs. If you are really risk adverse, place your initial stop just
> above today's high @100.62 (yesterdays close).
>
> 2) More conservative traders can wait and sell the first rally or bear flag
> that builds after a confirmed break below the breakout point.
>
> Keep in mind that these signals are actionable in other markets. Both the
> Swiss Franc and the D-Mark are setting up reversals that should be monitored.
Greetings Traders:
I also tend to think that something is really in the making of the US dollar.
People who trade breakout would have long the dollar/yen at the very recent
upside breakout of the triangle (Please refer to usdyen1.gif). If one really
wants to trade base on breakout. Look again on the point and figure of the
dollar/yen chart. It hasn't broken out of the triangle YET! (usdyen2.gif) Wave
counts also suggest a MUCH lower US dollar should be anticipated. 123.73 remains
a strong pivot on the daily chart; with all these APPs (alternate price
projections), price expansions, and retracements forming a very strong price
cluster at the said resistance levels. Upside of the US dollar should be
contained by these clusters. Finally, Notice Walt Down's Acceleration indicator,
it still remains on the short side of the market. It will not take too long B4
an important Time Clusters appear in this particular market. As Stew mentioned,
the dollar should be watched closely .....Regards.
Have a good one
Jeff Harteam
Hong Kong
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