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Ben: while I agree with you that bonds are precarious here......
1) Friday's employment is going to probably tell the short term tale. IF
it's bullish (as prior 3), then maybe this low still holds. IF NOT
2) There is a lattice-work of huge multi-year support within 2 points.
3) The most important global bond low right now is the japanese bond....
where the economy is truly dependent on maintaining accomodation & low rates,
followed by the bund & gilt. IF these hadn't rallied in March, I don't think
US would have either, or not as soon. I mention this because I sense a great
deal of determination on the part of both central banks & treasuries to keep
rates low globally.
More troubling, is what any short-term break in the March US bond low will do
to US stocks.... with the S&P, OTC, and Russell 2000 ALL at Elliott Wave 5
Fibonacci resistance levels, a crack in bonds seems very ominous for stocks
short term.
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