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Dear Ira,
As you know I originally just e-mailed this to you alone.Having just
seen some items you wrote that are not correct relative to systems I
use,I decided to clear the record:
Just between you and me,you use terms like "people
are risking money with little or no idea of what they see on the
screen" as though all people do that.Some people do that with
mechanical systems and some do it with indicaters you mention.There
are all kinds of bad traders as well as many kinds of good traders.
Your comments in regard to my systems were very inaccurate and for you
to suggest they are black boxes is even more inaccurate.
You know I wish you nothing but the best and perhaps we should both
stick to what we do best for ourselves.There is more than 1 way to
make money in commodities and neither you or I have all the ways
cornered.
I am a proponent of intelligent use of mechanical systems.You are a
proponent of trading your way.I would never think to suggest you are
wrong since I have no access to your trading results.I give access to
my trading results good , bad or indifferent because I find it is an
interesting topic and others appear to ask for follow-up info to
explore on their own.This is in the spirit of mutual education as I
believe is one of the purposes of this forum.
Sincerely,
John
------------------ Reply Separator --------------------
Originally From: Ira <ist@xxxxxx>
Subject: Re: Mechanical Trading Update-Response
Date: 05/02/1999 05:03pm
I am not a cycle proponent. I used it as an example. I could give
the same
example for moving averages, or most any other indicator that is
currently used.
Many incorrectly. Stochastics and cycles were the easiest to use as an
example. I
use cycles, I use momentum and other things that will give me the
specific signals
that I, as a trader, require. Granted they may be different then what
any one
else will use, but they work for me, because I designed them to fill
my needs and
to work for me. My whole point was that people are risking money with
little or no
idea of what they are seeing on the screen is telling them or what the
indicator
or average etc. is supposed to relay. They are risking funds on what
a black says
to do and willing to take huge draw downs on the belief that
eventually the back
box will be right and save them. Ira.
MRLYNNG@xxxxxxx wrote:
> In a message dated 5/2/99 9:23:36 AM Pacific Daylight Time,
ist@xxxxxx writes:
>
> << Hurst proved that the cycles vary and that there are cycles
within cycles.
> >>
> Ira:
> I agree with your analysis but I don't arrive at the same conclusion
(that a
> system must adapt to market conditions or else it will fail). I
think one of
> the hardest things to do is to determine the cycles and phases
within a
> market. I have seen countless traders focus on cycles and continue
to lose
> in their trading. Also if we find something that works for us, we
start to
> assume that it is THE way to do it but even then it will not be
right for
> every one.
>
> Now for all of the cycle proponents, I agree that cycles can be
useful. For
> me it is a time consuming process with variable results that still
produce a
> number of losses IF the cycles alone are used. The best hope
appears to be
> Bressert's new software that takes much of the drudgery out of the
search for
> cycles and phases of cycles. It is being tested now and reports of
it's
> features are very promising. I will have to wait until I see it in
action.
>
> Ira, thanks for sharing your thoughts on cycles. It helps to
understand a
> little better where you are coming from with the emphasis on cycles.
In the
> past you would categorically dismiss some approaches and I could
never
> understand why. I think you may have alot to share with the group
but are
> afraid of revealing some secret that you feel is important. In most
cases I
> have found that one person's secrets are rarely considered as a
secret or
> important by others. As we all know, if a winning method of trading
were
> given to 10 people, only zero or one would actually trade it the way
it was
> given to them. Each would make changes to fit their way of doing
things
> despite the fact that everything they used in the past was a loser.
Old
> habits are tough, very tough to change.
> Lynn
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