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If you are going to talk fundamentals, which I am not a great believer in, it
will take a larger move down in the bonds to affect the stock market. When the
bond market tanks and interest rates get into the 7% area, you will find that
there will be an exit from the stock market and a move into bonds. That is
where a rally will come from, in my opinion.
BOTTrader@xxxxxxx wrote:
> Earl.....If bonds tank, they'll also likely take the US stock indexes with
> them !! IMHO the regulatory framework has alot vested in maintaining the
> recent bottom in bonds.... particularly the bottom in Japan & Europe
> bonds.... this in turn should support the US bond. Further, if the recent
> low in US doesn't hold, there is additional HUGE technical support directly
> underneath in the 118-119+ area.... both uptrending and horizontal support
> levels abound. On the other hand, I see no basis for a strong bond rally
> from this point, other than that's the trend right now. Since markets don't
> like to sit in narrow ranges for long, there's likely to be growing
> uneasiness in bonds. Look at today, one day after the great positive
> employment cost index, we get a huge down day....
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