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Your FFEE of the last few months does not appear to be correct. You say that
"money will be driven OUT of Europe and Japan during the period from March
thru present..... and INTO THE US"..... implying that you switched your
trades out of Europe and Asia and Into the U.S. Markets..... WELL, lets
see.....
1) In Stock markets: The FTSE has equally performed vs. the SPX, The DAX
has at least equalled the SPX since April 1, The EAFE index as a whole has
equalled the SPX, The Eurotop 100 has equalled or bettered the SPX, and the
Nikkei and most of the rest of Asia have been substantially stronger than the
SPX..... SO, I hope you didn't short those markets to take a position in the
U.S. !
2) In Bond Markets: Gilts and Bunds have equally performed vs. US 30 Yrs,
and the Japanese Govt. Bond has been about the strongest major developed
nation bond during the period of your trading.
>From a fundamental standpoint, I would analyze the period since mid-March a
little differently: The rest of the world needed a bond rally more than we
did.... There was a little confusion when Japan announced it's policy of
accomodation in March, but after that cleared, bond markets around the globe
rallied (with Japan LEADING).... this major world bond rally I feel is a big
part of the ensuing stock rallies globally (including the SPX). But it was
not, I don't believe, a case of money LEAVING Europe, Asia, and elsewhere and
flowing here, as your post seems to forecast (though at the time your
forecast was as good as any since even the best forecast has only slightly
more than 50% likelihood).
By the way, I don't knock fundamental trading, but IMHO, it still has to be
applied with some consistency..... i.e. in a systematic fashion, using the
same basic framework of analysis, and is a tremendous adjunct to technical
systems.
one persons viewpoint.
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