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Hi Rich,
There are probability tables done for that purposes. Dr JT Jackson has an
add on software to Fibonacci Trader that generates the proabaility values
for prices to reach certain targets. You can get to read about how these
are computed and the actual tables themselves from the book, "Detecting
High Profit Day Trades in the Futures Markets-- using zone Pattern
Probability Analysis". His methodology does not include usage for the
futures index.
There is a software called RPM (Reliable Pattern Matching) that generates
reports on the probabilities of targets being achieved on any particular
day once the first open day's trade price is know, if I am not mistaken.
That's for the S&P futures.
Hope it helps.
Peter
============================
At 10:12 19/04/99 -0500, you wrote:
>Hi everyone,
>
> Does anybody know the formula to compute the probability that a stock will
>hit a given price at a given time? ie: given a volatility of x and current
>stock price of p, what is the probability that the stock will move to price
>q in three days?
>
> rich
>
>
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