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My astro chart shows all neg. numbers by 3amMST tonite.. Probably a good
time to go long..
<br> <a href="file:///C|/InetPub/wwwroot/clyde/forecasts/Images/astrocht.gif">4/12/99
3amMST astrochart</a>
<p>Regards
<br>Gary Bodnar
<p>Dick Webb wrote:
<blockquote TYPE=CITE>April 12 is the big turn day for Erman
<br>theGoldenbox.com went short S&P
<br>Jaenisch - Andrews technique went short S&P he had a
<br>buy signal in the SnP october 8.
<p>Dick
<p>--- swp <swp@xxxxxxxxxx> wrote:
<br>> Here are a few of the dates I have seen:
<br>>
<br>> Armstrong/PEI - 8-April
<br>> Parrallax Financial Research - 9-April or 12-April
<br>> An ewave guy I know - 16-April
<br>> My favorite EWave guy (me) - any time we get near or
<br>> above resistance
<br>> line between 5-April and 23-April
<br>> Several cycle folks: 9-April thru 16-April
<br>> Bob Miner - week of 5-April or week of 23-April
<br>> (though he said if
<br>> futures closed above 1357, we'd go to over 1400)
<br>>
<br>>
<br>> Earl Adamy wrote:
<br>> >
<br>> > The market is currently more extremely overvalued
<br>> according to the
<br>> > Earnings/TBill Ratio than it has been since
<br>> 1920's. I've seen quite a number
<br>> > of forecasts for a major top due between Friday
<br>> (last) and Wednesday based
<br>> > upon various cycle methods. Compaq's warned after
<br>> Friday close that earnings
<br>> > would fall far short of expectation. Take your
<br>> pick.
<br>> >
<br>> > Earl
<br>> >
<br>> > -----Original Message-----
<br>> > From: John Cappello <jvc689@xxxxxxx>
<br>> > To: RealTraders Discussion Group
<br>> <realtraders@xxxxxxxxxxxxxx>
<br>> > Date: Sunday, April 11, 1999 5:10 PM
<br>> > Subject: Globex Nasdaq / S&P Sell-off
<br>> >
<br>> > >To List:
<br>> > >
<br>> > >Any ideas on the timing of this sell-off now
<br>> underway.Nasdaq down
<br>> > >50; S&P down 25.
<br>> > >
<br>> > >John
<br>>
<br>> --
<br>> Steven W. Poser, President
<br>> Poser Global Market Strategies Inc.
<br>> http://www.poserglobal.com
<br>>
<br>> Tel: 201-995-0845
<br>> Fax: 201-995-0846
<br>> Email: swp@xxxxxxxxxxxxxxx
<br>>
<p>===
<br>Big Lucky Dick
<p>_________________________________________________________
<br>Do You Yahoo!?
<br>Get your free @yahoo.com address at http://mail.yahoo.com</blockquote>
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</x-html>From ???@??? Sun Apr 11 20:50:17 1999
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From: "Szilassy" <szilassy@xxxxxxx>
To: RealTraders Discussion Group <realtraders@xxxxxxxxxxxxxx>
Subject: Re: Stocks: need help with daytrading time frames.
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<BLOCKQUOTE
style="BORDER-LEFT: #000000 solid 2px; MARGIN-LEFT: 5px; PADDING-LEFT: 5px">
<DIV><FONT face=Arial size=2><BR></DIV></FONT>
<DIV>I had held my trade through 2 levels of support and then bailed.
I was very frustrated because my gut said bail but my methodology said stay
to see if it finds support. This trade never showed more than an 1/8th
as a sign that it might go my way. Yet I stuck through a period of
consolidation only to see it break out to the downside and then fall off the
cliff. How would you have handled that one?</DIV>
<DIV> </DIV>
<DIV><STRONG><FONT face="Baskerville Old Face"><FONT size=4>Linda, my
methodology would have told me to bail. In fast-moving stocks in
particular, it is of cardinal importance to use time stops. This is
when you say to yourself - if this trade does not meaningfully go my way
within X minutes after entry, I'm outa here. In some of the inets I
trade, this could be one 5-minute price bar, or a single 1-minute price bar
even. We must face a basic truth as traders - if a trade does not go
our way quickly, entry was made at the wrong time or should not have been
made in the first place. The stock is doing one of two things:
(1) entering congestion, and a sideways market has a 50-50 chance of moving
up or down, or (2) is about to reverse, as it is being manipulated by market
makers looking to make money on both ways of an engineered move. The
longer you stay in a trade in which you are not comfortably in the money,
the greater the probability that you will exit at a substantial loss.
Call it Murphy's Law if you wish, but I will tell you this - every breakeven
or out-of-the-money trade which I have stayed in for more than a few bars
has ended a loser in 70%+ of all cases.... and the longer the time frame I
held on, the bigger the loss.</FONT></FONT></STRONG><FONT
size=4></FONT></DIV>
<DIV> </DIV>
<DIV> </DIV>
<DIV>I'm really demanding a lot from myself and each trade. But my
stop losses are too big and my profits grabbed too quickly.</DIV>
<DIV> </DIV>
<DIV><FONT color=#000000 face="Baskerville Old Face" size=4><STRONG>If you
state this without hesitation, something major is wrong, but it's
correctable! Trading is almost exclusively psychology. The
proof's in the pudding - weeks of successful papertrading by someone prompts
him/her to start using real money, and presto! The real-money trading
wipes out chunks of trading capital. It's amazing how nimble exits and
recognition of no-win situations in papertrading mode suddenly becomes an
inability to exit when a trade goes against us in cash
mode.</STRONG></FONT></DIV>
<DIV><FONT color=#000000 face="Baskerville Old Face"
size=4><STRONG></STRONG></FONT> </DIV>
<DIV><FONT color=#000000 face="Baskerville Old Face" size=4><STRONG>I went
through a period of extensive self-reflection after I realized that months
of spectacular gains were more than fully compensated with spectacular
losses, with the net effect slightly less than zero. (I suppose I
should consider myself privileged in this respect.) I read a number of
books written by psychologists on psychological conditions, such as
compulsive personality disorder and addiction. I found out that, among
others, my perfectionist nature was not allowing me to recognize errors and
compensate with appropriate speed. Solution: until I can
overcome this strong tenet of my personality (if I ever can), my wife sits
by my side with an imaginary frying pan and metaphorically clobbers me over
the head with it if I do not act when a trade waffles.
</STRONG></FONT></DIV>
<DIV> </DIV>
<DIV> </DIV>
<DIV>It would be very helpful if you would explain to me how you allow for
market noise, yet can also bail out if the trade doesn't prove itself.
What do you require as proof? I think that's my next step to improving
my trading. I trade price more than indicators, though I do overlay a
moving average channel over my 10 minute bars to give me perspective.
My gut gives me another perspective! </DIV>
<DIV> </DIV>
<DIV><FONT color=#000000><FONT size=4><STRONG><FONT
face="Baskerville Old Face">See above info on time stops. It's that
simple. TRADE WHAT YOU SEE, NOT WHAT YOU THINK! Entry and exit
must be honed to a mechanical nature, although not in the sense many
think. You should be conditioned to enter and exit immediately if your
set of objective criteria (including time stops) tell you to do so. No
thinking, no waiting to see what happens next, no hesitating until your
"price" stop is hit.</FONT></STRONG></FONT></FONT></DIV>
<DIV><FONT color=#000000><FONT size=4><STRONG><FONT
face="Baskerville Old Face"></FONT></FONT></FONT><FONT
face="Baskerville Old Face"><FONT size=4></FONT></FONT></STRONG> </DIV>
<DIV><STRONG><FONT face="Baskerville Old Face" size=4>Also, though, I watch
what other stocks in the same sector are doing. Barring any news
effecting a particular share price, stocks within the same sector tend to
correlate well in terms of meaningful intraday moves/trends. If a
stock which I just shorted is waffling and other stocks in the sector are
tanking, I patiently continue to monitor the sector. If I can see the
others hitting congestion or starting to reverse - with my stock still
trading in congestion - it's time to cover quickly!</FONT></STRONG></DIV>
<DIV> </DIV>
<DIV> </DIV>
<DIV>But back to my original question... by making a trade prove itself, are
you stopped out often yet don't find yourself being whipsawed?
Obviously this fits your plan well. I'd appreciate your insight.</DIV>
<DIV> </DIV>
<DIV><STRONG><FONT color=#000000 face="Baskerville Old Face" size=4>I
haven't yet reached the mechanical level I describe above. But
immediately before and after entry, I watch the action on L2 more than
anything. If I don't see the kind of movement I look for in these
situations, it's time to get out and wait, or look for something else.
There are too many opportunities every session to goof around with a
languishing stock.</FONT></STRONG></DIV>
<DIV> </DIV>
<DIV><FONT color=#000000><FONT size=4><FONT
face="Baskerville Old Face"><STRONG>Hope this
helps!</FONT></FONT></FONT><FONT face="Baskerville Old Face"><FONT
size=4></FONT></FONT></STRONG></DIV>
<DIV><FONT color=#000000><FONT size=4><FONT
face="Baskerville Old Face"><STRONG></FONT></FONT></FONT><FONT
face="Baskerville Old Face"><FONT size=4></FONT></FONT></STRONG> </DIV>
<DIV><FONT color=#000000><FONT size=4><FONT
face="Baskerville Old Face"><STRONG>Regards,</FONT></FONT></FONT><FONT
face="Baskerville Old Face"><FONT size=4></FONT></FONT></STRONG></DIV>
<DIV><FONT color=#000000><FONT size=4><FONT
face="Baskerville Old Face"><STRONG></FONT></FONT></FONT><FONT
face="Baskerville Old Face"><FONT size=4></FONT></FONT></STRONG> </DIV>
<DIV><FONT color=#000000 face="Baskerville Old Face" size=4><STRONG>Paul
Szilassy</STRONG></FONT></DIV>
<DIV><FONT color=#000000 face="Baskerville Old Face"
size=4><STRONG></STRONG></FONT> </DIV>
<DIV><FONT color=#000000 face="Baskerville Old Face"
size=4><STRONG>P.S. I hope you don't mind - I'm sending this to the
forum as well, because I think this discussion may be of benefit to
others.</STRONG></FONT></DIV></BLOCKQUOTE></BODY></HTML>
</x-html>From ???@??? Sun Apr 11 20:50:22 1999
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Subject: sell off underway
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In a down market as we may see in the am , when does the first trade in syp,
dia, and qqq go off ? 9:30? when so many are open? or do they trade off the
futures .
thanks tom
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