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Tim: One note of caution from a bondtrader regarding your comment that the
front month should gain on back month in strong markets.... This just isn't
so in bonds... When the bond market is rallying seriously, more often than
not the back month is gaining on the front month (contrary to your example in
ags)..... When this Isn't happening, the market is telling you the rally is
more limited to immediate conditions.... BEST RECENT EXAMPLE: the rally to
the 1998 high... you will find that during this Perverse, G-7 engineered
rally, the front month did gain on the back months.... only to see the rally
pop. Well, when you see perverse conditions like that, where the contract is
rising but the front month is the strongest (AND commercials are RECORD
SHORT).... keep a tight trendline :)
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