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The one thing I keep in mind when looking at bonds is the severely extended
and over valued state of the equity markets and new era economy which might
very well tank along with the markets. I suspect that treasuries will be the
only decent haven left and might well provide some stupendous gains.
Should we get that long overdue 30%+ decline, the "surplus" will go to hell
in a handbasket along with tax collections, not to mention the uproar over
decline in baby boomer pension assets and corporate liabilities for suddenly
underfunded pension plans.
Earl
-----Original Message-----
From: Ira <ist@xxxxxx>
To: RealTraders Discussion Group <realtraders@xxxxxxxxxxxxxx>
Date: Thursday, April 01, 1999 8:51 AM
Subject: Re: FUT Bond
>More bullish news. There is no inflation, that is why gasoline here went
from
>$1.09 to $1.67 per gallon in 8 days. There are now more commercials on TV
for
>investments, mutual funds, brokerage firms, and on line trading then there
are
>beer and auto commercials put together. Housing costs are up an average of
10%
>on the west coast and more in other areas. Corporate earnings are down
worse
>then they were just before the 1990 break in the market. Nothing to worry
>about, the average investor and 401k owner is in for the long run and a
minor
>drop of 20% to 30% wouldn't bother them at all. There is a huge government
>surplus. It happens to be the social security tax, which was put into the
>general fund, so that more pork could be produced by our elected officials.
>Could this be the reason that hogs and bellies are dropping like a stone.
>There is an escalating war going on that could turn out to be another Nam.
>Asia is awash in recession and China is considering devaluation of the
Yuan,
>which would do nothing but add greater stability to the region. I'm not
>worried, as long as I can still go short when the time comes, there is
hope.
>Have a Happy Easter and Passover holiday. Ira.
>
>Earl Adamy wrote:
>
>> Stir in the bearish NAPM, construction spending, and labor reports this
>> morning and salt the brew with _the_ labor report due out tomorrow
morning
>> in thin markets. I would have expected the brew to break into such a boil
>> that bonds would break the March low at 119^09. Perhaps the fact that the
>> reaction seems to be so muted is bullish for bonds (assuming that 119^09
is
>> not taken out today)?
>>
>> Earl
>
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