|
PureBytes Links
Trading Reference Links
|
Brent
While unlikely that I might add to the sum of your knowledge, let me offer
you a leaf out of a certain book, as it were! (I did this once before and
a certain mutual accquaintence got very upset that I should discuss in that
which he had paid for in private!) However...
I believe an answer (note I use the indefinite rather than definite
article) is in part a mixture of assessment of the price action and the
risk/reward of the trade. The price action is the surest way you are
going to know, or at any rate, judge with reasonable accuracy, which way
the market is going (I hasten to add that I am speaking, of course, only of
the T-Bonds and the day trading of them) and the risk/reward of the trade
has to allow you to be wrong more often than you are right.
Thus, organizing these two aspects correctly, will put yourself in the
situation of facing the right way, with a greater degree of accuracy than
with any other tool, and more often than not you will be able to take a few
(and sometimes many!) steps of profit. This way, on the occasions when
you find yourself wrong, you will be able to cope admirably and, overal,
walk away with more than you lose.
There are just a few other factors that have to be taken into account as
well - and as well you know - but going in the right direction with a
properly thought through strategy for risk versus reward, are without doubt
the linch pins in a successful trading plan.
Hope this helps.
By the way, an incidental, but fundamental point, is to establish whether
you are a technical trader or whether you are a fundamental trader. It is
best to be clear which and stick to it. There are those who think they
can mix the two, but they usually fail from falling between two schools of
thought.
As a day trader, I believe the choice is made! I have to take a technical
approach and I therefore cannot afford any outside influences or
predicitions over market movement. I do not need or want to know what
people think about the market, a report that is due, or any other supposed
indicator - the risk/reward, if you like, of knowing another's opinion is
not good enough. In fact it is usually lousy! Furthemore, I find it
quite frightening that some day traders are actually prepared to pay for
such 'knowledge'. Tragic.
Best of trading
Bill Eykyn
www.dbceuro.com/bille.htm
-----Original Message-----
From: BrentinUtahsDixie <brente@xxxxxxxxxxxx>
To: RealTraders Discussion Group <realtraders@xxxxxxxxxxxxxx>
Date: Monday, March 29, 1999 5:51 pm
Subject: Re: Gen: Help for advanced traders.
>Of course this is NOT the only way that a market move can develop.
Movement
>can happen in any of about 50000 ways. However, it happens frequently
enough
>that I consider it a major impact on overall market movement. The whole
idea
>is to catch many or even most traders unaware, cause short covering and
>"profit taking" in a big way. As only two or 3 indicated any interest in
>this subject I will not belabor the point. I was hoping for more ideas to
be
>forthcoming. Most of the suggestions centered around consistency, money
>management, and no second guessing. One suggestion was to trade
divergences.
>I thank those that replied. None of the original post reflects how I trade
>at present, I simply wanted to generate some thought about some
difficulties
>that I have faced in the past and why many even advanced traders get into
>such traps. No one suggested using options, or strategies like straddles,
or
>bracketing etc. etc.
>
>Many traders have what they are doing at present or their own ideas so
>strongly in their mind that they listen very little, have a lot to say
about
>that which they know little, and ask good questions even less. I'm often
>guilty myself and there is spring in the air.
>
>Money Management has been sighted as the cure for all ills so often I'm
>tired of hearing it. Yes, be a perfect money manager it's a great idea.
I'm
>not directing this critique at anyone in specific just pointing it out in
>general.
>
>I think that very large orders (more then a few 100 contracts) seldom ever
>reach the floor to be fed off of as was suggested. I sure wouldn't want to
>do business that way if I were a large trader. Getting hundreds or even
>thousands of fills at different prices. No thank you.
>
>
>Brent
>
>
>
>
>>brent:
>>one way to interpret your post is that these are your views of the "only
>way"
>>a move (or a range swing) develops...... there are many other
>possibilities.
>>Take your first scenario..... while one large trader can do an entire lot
>with
>>another large trader, your post seems to suggest that this only happens
>with a
>>substantial price change. IF both traders are satisfied with the current
>>bid/ask, it may transpire with minimal price change, though the volume is
>of
>>interest. Secondly, what if there is no opposite large trader.... and
>someone
>>bids for 5,000 contracts, then the smaller traders and locals may feed
off
>of
>>that and drive the price higher in a nice trending move.
>>
>>But your second scenario is more interesting.... honestly I think the
>answer
>>lies in your indicators and your money management. Your post seems to
>reflect
>>alot of discretion in your trading.... I use some discretion, but never
to
>the
>>point that I'm "fearful I missed a move".... if my indicators lined up
>>properly for an entry, and there is a move out of congestion, I'm going
to
>>take it... usually with a very comfortable close stop, and if the stop
is
>>hit, fine.... if the move just makes it to the next support/resistance
area
>>and fades, fine I've got a few ticks, if it continues through, fine I've
>got a
>>nice move. THE KEY is in your indicators getting you in, and your stop(s)
>>managing the trade.... not in your discretionary worry about whether it's
>too
>>late. In the latter case, if I find that I did not enter a trade early
>with
>>my indicators, I usually do not enter late just to get on board.... I
wait
>for
>>the next setup.
>>
>
>
>
|