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brent:
one way to interpret your post is that these are your views of the "only way"
a move (or a range swing) develops...... there are many other possibilities.
Take your first scenario..... while one large trader can do an entire lot with
another large trader, your post seems to suggest that this only happens with a
substantial price change. IF both traders are satisfied with the current
bid/ask, it may transpire with minimal price change, though the volume is of
interest. Secondly, what if there is no opposite large trader.... and someone
bids for 5,000 contracts, then the smaller traders and locals may feed off of
that and drive the price higher in a nice trending move.
But your second scenario is more interesting.... honestly I think the answer
lies in your indicators and your money management. Your post seems to reflect
alot of discretion in your trading.... I use some discretion, but never to the
point that I'm "fearful I missed a move".... if my indicators lined up
properly for an entry, and there is a move out of congestion, I'm going to
take it... usually with a very comfortable close stop, and if the stop is
hit, fine.... if the move just makes it to the next support/resistance area
and fades, fine I've got a few ticks, if it continues through, fine I've got a
nice move. THE KEY is in your indicators getting you in, and your stop(s)
managing the trade.... not in your discretionary worry about whether it's too
late. In the latter case, if I find that I did not enter a trade early with
my indicators, I usually do not enter late just to get on board.... I wait for
the next setup.
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