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the latest sentiment data, and pretty stunning at that...
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LOWRISK.COM
INVESTOR SENTIMENT SURVEY
3 / 22 / 99
brought to you by Investormap.com
the biggest directory of investing sites on the net.
http://www.investormap.com
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Below are the results of our weekly "Guess the Dow" sentiment
survey. The survey was taken from 3/14 through 3/21 on the
Lowrisk.com web site.
Number of participants: 323
30 day outlook:
29% bullish, 59% last week
51% bearish, 20% last week
20% neutral, 21% last week
(percentages may not sum to 100 due to rounding)
Median guess for the DJIA closing value on Friday, 3/26: 9950 (it
was 9942 last week). More complete sentiment data is available at
<http://www.lowrisk.com/sentiment.htm> .
This week's sentiment numbers are simply the most suprising numbers
that we have seen in the 98 weeks that we have been publishing this
Lowrisk.com Sentiment Report. I was so stunned by these results that
I doublechecked all our programming to make sure everything was in
order. It all checked out, so now I am trying to come up with some
rational way to view this data.
In a week when the DJIA traded above 10,000 for the first time and
closed higher for the week, bullish sentiment plummeted and bearish
sentiment soared. The bulls dropped 30% to 29%. This is the lowest
bullish reading since 10/18/98. It is also the second largest one
week drop we have ever seen in bullish sentiment (the first was 8/
15/97). The bears gained 31% to end at 51%. That is the highest bear
reading since 10/18/98. The one week gain of 31% is the largest ever
for the bears.
Normally, I would view the combination of a strong market with more
bearish sentiment as a strong argument for the bulls. But as I said
above, these numbers are hard to put in perspective. We simply have
never seen anything like this before, so I hesitate to make a
judgement on what this sentiment data means.
Please stop by to take part in this weeks survey at:
http://www.lowrisk.com/guess.htm
best regards,
Jeff Walker
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To subscribe to the direct email distribution of this report send
mailto:gtd-request@xxxxxxxxxxxx with the word "subscribe" in
the body of the message. Or stop by http://www.lowrisk.com/sentiment-sub.htm
jwalker@xxxxxxxxxxx
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