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Evaluation of patterns is not mechanical which is one reason so many traders
prefer to use indicators. Thus, it is nearly impossible to objectively
measure the success or failure rate of a pattern. That said, a pattern is
the expression of market psychology and the failure of a pattern is often as
good or better a trading opportunity than is success of the pattern e.g.
failed bull/bear triangles often run farther than the anticipated thrust in
the direction of success. Further, the observation of patterns, particularly
on the daily charts contributes to the action of the market as traders place
entry stops along the boundaries of the evolving pattern. Observation of the
early action along the pattern boundaries provides further clues to trading
opportunities as large and small traders jostle to safely accumulate
inventory for the anticipated ride out of the pattern.
Earl
-----Original Message-----
From: Norman Phair <ericrogers@xxxxxxxxxxxxx>
To: RealTraders Discussion Group <realtraders@xxxxxxxxxxxxxx>
Date: Saturday, March 20, 1999 7:40 PM
Subject: Re: Wolfe Wave on SnP
>Brent:
>
>The most important fact about any pattern. method, system or whatever, is
>like you said, how many times did it work. 3 out of 4, good percentage
>but not enough examples. 30 out of 60, enough examples probably but %
>is no good. What is the ideal? Hard to say, for example 21 out of 30
>maybe enough, 70%. But has it been tested back enough years to cover
>all types of markets. When I take a stock market indicator and back
>test it
>I like to do the period from 1966 through 1974. It boils down to the
>fact that you must do the research. Unfortunately, wall street experts
>so to speak, do not do this. Opinions by people on TV in my opinion are
>detrimental, they like to hear themselves talk. Enough said.
>
>Norman
>
>BrentinUtahsDixie wrote:
>>
>> Not that I care who gets credit, but who has time to research all the
past
>> writings before you can say something about something. The problem as I
see
>> it
>> is that almost nobody bothers to say what percentage of the time a
pattern
>> worked
>> over the last umteen years.
>>
>> Brent
>>
>> -----Original Message-----
>> From: Earl Adamy <eadamy@xxxxxxxxxx>
>> To: RealTraders Discussion Group <realtraders@xxxxxxxxxxxxxx>
>> Date: Saturday, March 20, 1999 4:26 PM
>> Subject: Re: Wolfe Wave on SnP
>>
>> >How would this differ from Edwards and Magee's "Broadening Top"
formation?
>> >Not that it necessarily applies in this case, however I'm amazed at how
>> >often, while reading an article on some original work or research, the
>> >author rediscovers E&M's work some 50+ years ago without credit.
>> >
>> >Earl
>> >
>> >-----Original Message-----
>> >From: R.E.Turner <rturner@xxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxx>
>> >To: RealTraders Discussion Group <realtraders@xxxxxxxxxxxxxx>
>> >Date: Saturday, March 20, 1999 3:45 PM
>> >Subject: Re: Wolfe Wave on SnP
>> >
>> >
>> >>Slight correction of my interpretation of the WolfeWave numbering
scheme,
>> >>as gleaned from "Street Smarts" and the basic architecture faxed to me
by
>> >>Wolfe. Comments by someone who actually studied under Wolfe would be
>> >>helpful since it appears that there are projection and predictive
>> qualities
>> >>to the Wolfe Wave.
>> >> Russ-----Original Message-----
>> >>From: R.E.Turner <rturner@xxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxx>
>> >>To: RealTraders Discussion Group <realtraders@xxxxxxxxxxxxxx>
>> >>Date: Saturday, March 20, 1999 8:25 AM
>> >>Subject: Re: Wolfe Wave on SnP
>> >>
>> >>
>> >>>Kevin,
>> >>> My interpretation ofr the Wolfe Wave is slighlly different.
We're
>> >not
>> >>>quite to the top of Wave 6 on the SnP, with a potential for a down
>> >>>Wave 7(or shifting one cycle to the right, 7 becomes a new 5). The
top
>> >of
>> >>>Wave 6 is closer to the trendline drawn from point 1 through point 4.
>> >>Again
>> >>>just my interpretation, never took Wolfe's $2500 course
>> >>>Russ
>> >>>-----Original Message-----
>> >>>From: Kevin Shin <kalalex@xxxxxxxxxxxxx>
>> >>>To: RealTraders Discussion Group <realtraders@xxxxxxxxxxxxxx>
>> >>>Date: Saturday, March 20, 1999 2:57 AM
>> >>>Subject: Wolfe Wave on SnP
>> >>>
>> >>>
>> >>>>I wonder if there's any Wolfe Wave follower.
>> >>>>It seems like SP's posing for the wave setup.
>> >>>>I'm not saying that we saw the top by any means.
>> >>>>
>> >>>>
>> >>>>
>> >>>>
>> >>>
>> >>>
>> >>>
>> >>
>> >>
>> >>
>> >
>> >
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