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The one thing that must be obvious from this thread is that we will all be
able to gauge the value of indicators on the bonds, for day trading, if Bob
continues to post. But will? You see, if what he says is accurate and
people can make money out of following it, there will be a mass of
subscriptions for him - and he will have to stop posting here for free.
If, on the other hand, the indicators are consistently wrong and/or his
commentary is taken as an "either way bet" and valueless, then few will
subscribe and it won't be a money spinner, so die. Certainly, he would
not go on posting here, if the things is no good.
So one way or another, we probably only have a short time in which to
evaluate what Bob has to offer. The last two days spoke for themselves,
but let us see what today brings - and more importantly, what the market
decides to do.
Let me point out one thing: Does anyone honestly think that if I thought
there was a good indicator or combination, that I could make money with,
that I would not use the it? Of course I would. What could be better
than, say, looking at a 2 period ROC, watch 'flip', lay out my money and go
the bank - along with a mass of other traders! Even if it works a few
times, it is the overall consistency that counts, isn't?
With enough indicators on display, perhaps one or other will work. The fax
sellers will sure point to it. But it all comes down to consistency - if
they work at all. You can hear it now can't you: "Well I know it said it
would be a down day, but you should have ignored that, because...." or,
"Well it is right most of the time, but not on this occasion..." or "You
have to take the general picture into account. It is the overall view..."
They all get very adept at the language. Ask yourself why? The whole
business of indicators is "iffy" - it is the nature of them. You got to
hedge your bets - but the trouble is you can't do that when you phone the
broker....!!!
When you are at the sharp end, actually trading, watching the tick chart,
scanning the one minute chart, following the five minute chart, try looking
at an indicator underneath your chart. As the ticks come in, as the cursor
moves up and down the bar, you will see the wretched thing changing its
mind all time. It is longing to tell you something useful and timely, but
it cant. At the end of the bar, it will be right - but the next bar has
started... where is your money going?
But when one bar is a whole day, a whole week, a whole month and you have a
gallon time to assess this or that, the very same indicator may be a
Godsend. I don't know. I do not position trade. All I know is that
indicators are quite useless to me. They are actually worse than that.
If you are mad enough to take one into account before you start to trade,
you could find yourself badly influenced and make seriously bad mistakes.
Anyway, I am quite confident that time will tell. I would just like to
think that some of the members of Real Traders do not get caught by
thinking they can go by what someone else, with someone else's indicators
thinks is going to happen. Learn to trade for yourself. Then do it for
yourself. That is the right way.
Meanwhile, I have still been getting a mass of private stuff, such as
below, but it would be nice to see some more public utterances from day
traders of the T-Bonds on the list and what they think of indicators:
"I was waiting for Bob Hunt to do something like that. It is pretty well
written, but it has been consistently wrong too!
".........having an opinion rather than following the market will
lead to lot's of losses while generating a lot of confusion.............
"Well said, simple and clear. If trading was easy it would be boring. And
it certainly ISN'T! But hard work isn't for everyone, so the
opinion-mongers will always have a audience.
Anyway, it was refreshing to read a honest critique of the perils of
depending upon another for your livelihood.
"Your mail on Hunt in particular and the general advice of do your own
thing or die was excellent (and true).
"Excellent post Bill, and I couldn't agree more. I am sure you will get
your share of "interesting" responses since you are going against the
prevailing wisdom.
"I know I should post my thoughts, as I know they are right - also from
experience. And I too despise indicators. But I have tried posting the
truth to these forums before and just got tired of the grief it caused.
"Then I questioned the motive of such 'free' service.
I don't know Bob,but the few e-mails we exchanged make
me feel He's good and has good intentions.I may be wrong.
Then when I read about the subscription....I just gave up!
Let me end by saying that I will not be reading Bob's post (if he does)
until after I have come out of the market. Then I shall have look and see
what was predicted. I will, by then, know what happened!!
Bill Eykyn
www.dbceuro.com/bille.htm
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