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Bill:
Good post. I for one am interested in beginning a discourse
on this topic. Will post more later as I have to leave town in
a bit......
Charles
-----Original Message-----
From: T-Bondtrader <t-bondtrader@xxxxxxx>
To: RealTraders Discussion Group <realtraders@xxxxxxxxxxxxxx>
Date: Tuesday, March 16, 1999 2:49 PM
Subject: Re: T-Bond Day Trading
>
>>To a daytrader, this means that the indicator "biases" trade direction
>>for the following day.
>
>Anyone who allows him or her self to be "biased" by an indicator before the
>market opens is naive. Anyone who propounds such a proposition for profit
>is knave.
>
>Successful day trading (non mechanical, obviously) relies on reacting to
>what the market is doing, not on what an indicator says it ought to be
>doing. Yesterday, the indicators were completely wrong. Today, we had the
>following:
>
>"Our cycle indicators are telling us that we're due for a drop."
>
>"...this is no strongly trending market. This is a drifter."
>
>"...a 10 day average reading of Trin less than .80 is a pretty good lock
>that the next day is going to be down. Yesterday's 10 day average of Trin
>came in at .79"
>
>We have not only had a lovely up day (worth a $1,000 per contract), but
>this is now the fourth day in a row with the market making a higher highs
>and lower lows.
>
>Such a scenario is usually described by most traders as a trend.
>Furthermore, you do not need an indicator or a moving average or anything
>else to see that. You only have to look at the chart
>
>This is the second day in a row ... What will tomorrow's prediction be?
>
>I am sorry, but there are a lot of people out there who would dearly like
>to become good at day trading. They would like to earn their living out
>of it. Most have a small amount of capital. Most have been caught by
>purveyors of other fax lists, hot lines, seminars and the rest and here,
>now, on RT we have someone unleashing yet another - and not even based on
>his own work.
>
>Well, as someone who has been through mill, I am just not prepared to let
>it go without pleading for readers on this list to be highly suspicious
>about the relevance of indicators and a 'service' based on them (even if
>they are lifted from someone else's book, so it is someone else's fault, if
>they don't work).
>
>I have had excellent private mail over this, now let's have some public
>stuff. We cannot afford to let a subject like this just die, so that the
>names of all those garnered off this list will be subjected to a service
>that will not actually be any service to them at all.
>
>The whole idea of RT, surely, is to thrash out subjects, so that value can
>come through and members benefit. There is hardly a more important subject
>to a day trader than the reliability or otherwise of indicators - let alone
>a fax service based on them.
>
>If I am wrong, tell me. It is not a private grievance "best left
>undiscussed in a serious public forum". It should be a vital topic to a
>lot traders - certainly to all those who are about to sign up. Or has the
>whole thing just been flying a kite - if so, I hope it has been torn to
>shreds?!
>
>Bill Eykyn
>www.dbceuro.com/bille.htm
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