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I think Corn looks like a tough case - the monthly and weekly charts seem to
lack symmetry in Fibonacci thrusts and retracements. The fib thrusts tell me
that a bottom is not yet in place but I would not be my hat on this. Both
monthly and weekly show Wyckoff springs which are bullish. Trendline on
weekly 10/16-11/13 has been tested twice and broken cleanly the second time
with a close above. The week has started out as an NR7ID indicating
consolidation and this is what the daily suggests to me. The gap day in the
daily is hard to judge without some idea of volume. The daily did take out a
pivot high from last decline which is mildly bullish. This is the kind of
setup I won't trade because I can't see that the odds are in my favor,
however for a very short term position trade I would be considering a long
entry depending on price action around 218.
Soymeal and wheat fib appear to have some bullish potential while beans look
like a basket case.
Earl
-----Original Message-----
From: Kevin Moran <kevinmoran@xxxxxxxxxxx>
To: RealTraders Discussion Group <realtraders@xxxxxxxxxxxxxx>
Date: Tuesday, March 16, 1999 10:52 AM
Subject: FUT: May Corn
>Traders,
>
>Thought I'd share some things I was looking at on the May Corn chart -
>looks like a good short trade:
>
>1. there is what Cardwell called a "Negative Reversal" (market becoming
>more overbought at lower levels) - RSI making higher highs while price
>is making lower highs
>2. the longer term bearish trend
>3. the short rally on the daily charts broke (and gapped) to the
>downside yesterday
>4. there is a symmetrical triangle on the weekly chart
>5. much of the recent price rally (last week) was due to net short
>covering
>6. there is the possibility of a H&S bottoming pattern forming, but the
>right shoulder is not yet in place - still downside potential
>7. the %R is overbought
>8. the %k & &d stochastic look ready to turn from over the bought area
>
>On the other side, commercials are net long....but they often are wrong
>for quites some time before price turns in their direction.
>
>Any comments?
>
>- Kevin
>Get Your Private, Free Email at http://www.hotmail.com
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