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</x-html>From ???@??? Sun Mar 14 18:18:09 1999
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Date: Sun, 14 Mar 1999 18:46:42 -0700
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From: "BrentinUtahsDixie" <brente@xxxxxxxxxxxx>
To: RealTraders Discussion Group <realtraders@xxxxxxxxxxxxxx>
Subject: Re: The Market
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Only one observation. Trends as most of you know don't always reverse in
fact more often they go into a lengthy sideways action before actually
reversing.
Brent
-----Original Message-----
From: Ira <ist@xxxxxx>
To: RealTraders Discussion Group <realtraders@xxxxxxxxxxxxxx>
Date: Sunday, March 14, 1999 6:30 PM
Subject: The Market
>As a technician I usually don't look at fundamentals other then to know
>where I am historically and what the current conditions are. It is
>raining out so I thought that I would pontificate for a moment. In
>looking back in history, I see that the 1968 to 1974 time frame with
>conditions similar to what we currently have. The late 90s look a lot
>like the end of the 60's. Low inflation, low commodity prices and low
>interest rates. Also the nifty fifty were on a rampage, not unlike
>today's internet stocks.
>
>Today we are looking at commodities at historical lows, adjusted for
>inflation. Many commodities are trading below production costs. We have
>a recession throughout most of the world and currencies being devalued
>right and left. Interest rates are at or near their lows. It appears
>to me that the only thing that can happen is a reversal of the trend.
>
>If Asia and other parts of the world enter a recovery and the demand for
>commodities increases, so will their prices. Also with increasing
>economic stability and growth their currencies will rally against the
>dollar. If these two things happen and this upward push occurs, bond
>prices will fall and interest rates will rally. Under these conditions
>the market can not sustain its upward momentum and the 13 to 15 stocks
>in the S&P 500 that have created its rise and the few generals in the
>dow that sustain its upward momentum will falter. With rising oil
>prices causing a rise in the Dow oil stocks a few more points may be in
>the offing.
>
>In the late 60's the target was 1000 on the Dow, today it is 10,000. It
>took 10 years to break through that 1000 barrier, can the same thing
>happen again. We don't have a Nixon with price controls, but there is
>always something to take its place.
>
>Just some things to think about. I won't stand in the way of this
>moving train, but I will be a lot more cautious of the type of positions
>I put on. Good trading, Ira
>
>
>
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