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Bob,
I have appreciated your daily postings on bond market postings. I am
familiar with how pivot numbers are computed for early in the day and
again for around 11:30. My question centers around your occassional
mention of a "3/4 intraday pivot high". What exactly is that?
Thank you.
Rich
Bob Hunt wrote:
>
> I've had some questions about how I use these automated printouts that
> I sometimes post. I thought I'd walk through one as an example. If
> there's any interest, I might consider making this a regular thing.
>
> Again, these printouts are not meant to be used as system trades, only
> as an aid in providing a "heads-up" for day-trading the T-Bonds.
>
> NOTE: all levels are for the June contract.
>
> ---------------------------------------------------------
> T-BOND DAY-TRADING FOR MONDAY, MARCH 1
>
> USM9
> R3 122 18/32
> R2 122 1/32
> R1 121 15/32
> DP 120 28/32
> S1 120 10/32
> S2 119 23/32
> S3 119 5/32
>
> TODAY IS AN NR4 DAY!
> If during the day tomorrow yesterday's high of 121-13 is exceeded then
> either buy the breakout (agr.) or look to buy a retracement to the
> breakout (cons.). If during the day tomorrow yesterday's low of
> 120-08 is exceeded then either sell the breakout (agr.) or look to
> sell a retracement to the breakout (cons.).
> *** If no other direction is specified by other indicators ***
> ** favor that of the 100 min. 5 Double Stoch 2 period slope.**__UP__
>
> MONITOR FOR HOLY GRAIL SETUPS! If the 5/15/30/60 or 120 min ADX>30
> then look to trade the bounce against that period's 20EMA with the
> last intraday swing pivot extreme as the target.
>
> Watch for OOPS! Trade - If O < YL then buy YL on a stop.
> ---------------------------------------------------------
>
> The following is the type of analysis that I run through each morning
> in preparation for that day's trading:
>
> Friday was an NR4 day, which means we've been undergoing at least some
> period of contraction in the market, with the potential for a
> breakout. I'll usually enter these days assuming that it will be a
> trend day and then try to determine which direction that trend might
> be. The 200 minute double stoch (attached chart) is telling us that
> we've just made a trough in a short term cycle and we're starting to
> head up. The slope of the 7 period %K is rising, coming out of an
> oversold zone. Intraday charts have the look of a bullish triangle
> coming out of the pivot low established on Thursday. All of this is
> telling me to enter today's trading with an upward bias.
>
> I would assume that after the severe downmove last week, the market is
> starting a consolidation phase, so we can expect price probes in both
> directions. Eventually, the outline of a triangle should be
> determined, and our job becomes a matter of trading that triangle.
> This is where the double stoch and 7 period %K indicators come in real
> handy. They are very good measures of the cyclical nature of the
> market during these triangles.
>
> Although I do not normally make astrological observations, I HAVE
> noticed that the full moon does seem to have an effect on this market.
> Tuesday is a full moon. Typically, the day before or the day after the
> full moon marks a daily swing pivot in bonds. Considering the oversold
> levels that this market has recently attained, my assumption would be
> that the turning point will be on Wednesday instead of today.
>
> Some significant support and resistance zones to consider today:
> YH was 121-13. YL was 120-08. Overnight Hi is 121-11. Overnight Low
> is 120-23 (Overnight numbers are as of 6:30AM CT). DP is 120-28. The
> 5,15,and 30 minute 20EMAs are all clustered around current price
> levels. We have a 60 min. EMA at 121-05 and a 120 min. EMA at 121-22.
> Of course, the 60 and 120 min. EMAs are going to change throughout
> the day, but for now, they have to be considered potential overhead
> resistance.
>
> We have some minor reports coming out at 7:30 CT and a more important
> one coming out at 9:00 (NAPM Index). I will avoid holding positions at
> both of these release times.
>
> With current levels near the DP and Overnight Low, the first order of
> business once the market opens is to evaluate price action near this
> level. I'll watch for a classic reversal pattern here on 5 min bars.
> If such a pattern develops, I'll buy with a stop just under the DP.
> If, instead, price drops lower than the DP, the next level where we
> might see some support is the late day pivot low from Friday at
> 120-21. If, instead, it soon becomes obvious that the DP has switched
> from being support to being resistance, I will change my bias for the
> day to bearish.
>
> If price does not give us our test of the DP then we have to watch
> what it does directly above. We have the Overnight Hi at 11, YH at 13
> and R1 at 15. This is an important enough band of resistance where we
> should get at least some sort of bounce. If not, then the trend for
> the day has been determined and its time for us to climb aboard!
>
> And that's pretty much how I track the market the rest of the day. I
> keep an eye on identified support and resistance levels and watch how
> price behaves near those levels.
>
> No rocket science here! But discipline, patience, and flexibility are
> important.
>
> Bob Hunt
>
> -------------------------------------------------
> The markets can't do anything to you if you trust yourself to act
> appropriately under any market conditions. Learning this is the key to
> gaining the level of confidence every trader needs to be successful. -
> Mark Douglas in The Disciplined Trader
>
> ------------------------------------------------------------------------
> [Image]
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