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I want to thank those of you who sent me feedback concerning the
approximate time that you received yesterday's report. Unfortunately,
there aren't any definite conclusions that can be formed by the
feedback. Some seemed to receive it in an appropriate amount of time
and some didn't. I'm starting to think that perhaps its just one of
those inevitable things that you have to accept about information
delivery over the internet.
I am considering moving the report to a late evening release time,
rather than the early morning. I am not particularly excited about
doing that because we'd lose all analysis of overnight activity.
If you have a preference, please let me know. If the report is
consistently arriving later than it should, please let me know that
also.
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T-BOND DAY TRADING FOR TUESDAY, MARCH 9
released 6:30AM CT, 3/9/99
-----------------------------------------------------------
Support, Resistance, and System Signals
USM9
R3 121 9/32
R2 120 31/32
R1 120 22/32
DP 120 15/32
S1 120 6/32
S2 119 31/32
S3 119 22/32
TODAY IS AN NR4 DAY!
TODAY IS ALSO AN NR7 DAY - GREATER POTENTIAL TO MOVE!
If during the day tomorrow YH of 120-25 is exceeded then either buy
the breakout (agr) or buy the retracement to the breakout (cons).
If during the day tomorrow YL of 120-09 is exceeded then either sell
the breakout (agr) or sell the retracement to the breakout (cons).
*** If no other direction is specified by other indicators ***
** favor that of the 100 min. 5 Double Stoch 2 period slope.**_DOWN_
Today is a 2 Day ROC SELL day - Look for intraday signals to go short
Today is an NR4 & 2 Day ROC SELL Day. DEFINITELY TRY TO GET SHORT!
C<=20% OF TODAY'S RANGE
80-85% chance that today's low will be less than yesterday's.
MONITOR FOR HOLY GRAIL SETUPS! If the 5/15/30/60 or 120 min ADX>30
then look to trade the bounce against that period's 20EMA with the
last intraday swing pivot extreme as the target.
Watch for OOPS! Trade - If O < YL then buy YL on a stop.
-----------------------------------------------------------
Commentary
Wow! I can't remember seeing a market so deeply committed to
non-committal in quite some time. It just doesn't want to go ANYWHERE
at this point.
The market started off the day yesterday giving us every reason to
remain optimistic. Right from the opening bell, it gradually climbed
away from the 120-15 DP, peaked on the initial move at 120-23, and was
nice enough to return to the DP zone to give us another chance of
getting long. Although no 5 min. oscillator divergence formed to give
us a reason to do so, there was a "minor" price reversal pattern in
the making that might have had us thinking that way. But it certainly
wasn't one of those that leave us with a great deal of conviction. Any
long positions taken on the basis of that one would have had to prove
themselves very quickly in order to justify themselves.
That justification just never came and an exit on the downmove away
from 120-25 peak would have been very appropriate. If you hadn't
exited by the time it returned to the area of the DP, the subsequent
sloppy market action should have been an even clearer clue to get out!
The market was telling us that it just didn't know WHERE it wanted to
go, and our job became that of letting it decide WITHOUT our
participation. There's absolutely no reason to take unnecessary risk
in those kind of sloppy market conditions.
The subsequent thrust downward through the DP was impressive. But,
here again, there just wasn't any follow-though, and the market
meandered back. This is the kind of market that is dominated by the
floor professionals with very little outside participation. The floor
just isn't willing to take it away from the equilibrium point as
defined by the Daily Pivot, and there isn't enough off-floor interest
to push it one way or the other.
Yesterday's tight range day has caused a number of our system signals
to fire, but, to be quite honest, I just can't put faith in ANY of
them that contain a directional element. Narrow Range signals are
still useable because the tell us to expect an increase in volatility,
and, more importantly, that today is likely to be a trend day. But the
market has just not given us any directional clues. I'm going to hold
off in making any sort of bias decisions until it does.
This market is so tight that the EMAs of ALL the periods that we
normally monitor for Holy Grail patterns are clustered around current
price . . . simply amazing! Both the 5 and 10 period Double Stoch
(attached chart) are in the process of rolling over from overbought,
but the 7 period %K seems to be rolling over prior to reaching that
zone. So there's nothing definite coming out of our cycle indicators.
I would think that the most appropriate opening strategy for today is
going to involve, once again, keeping a close eye on price as it moves
about the DP. Oftentimes, after an inside day, a failed attack on the
DP indicates a trend move in the opposite direction. That would be one
indication worth keeping tabs on. Another similar pattern would be a
failed attack on either yesterday's high or low. If one of these
levels are hit, but not breached early on in the day, we have an
equally important indication of a trend move in the opposite
direction.
As I ready the commentary for its 6:30 release, I notice that, in
overnight activity, we have broken through yesterday's 120-09 low.
This is a pretty good indication that our NR7 trend direction is going
to be down. The overnight low, as of 6:30 AM CT, is 120-01. If today's
opening price can stay within 8-10 ticks of yesterday's close of
120-11, I think we would stand a chance of closing the opening gap
sometime in early trading. If that happens, we stand a chance of
seeing our DP tested early on. Of course, that would also mean that
the OOPS Trade system signal would be triggered, and we should be
considering longs.
So we have the potential of two conflicting scenarios happening very
early on. This is the result of a market that just hasn't quite made
up its mind. When these kinds of opposing situations present
themselves, it doesn't pay to have an itchy trigger finger. The market
will reveal its true intent in due time.
As always, discipline, patience, and flexibility are vital.
And know the difference between making a prediction . . . and creating
a strategy. The distinction can make all the difference in your
long-term survival.
Bob Hunt
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