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I started trading a few years ago using only the Elliot wave. I went no where
fast. When you think you finished wave c and an upward movement proceeds, (go
long), and then you discover to your horror, you have a double zig-zag (headed
south). The Elliot wave will make you a fortune, but you have to be extremely
good at the analysis. I think your own personal bias will interfere with an
objective Elliot wave analysis.
Today I use various trading systems in Metastock. Trading systems alone have
been very profitable for me. But, I did add Elwave (Prognosis, true Elliot
Wave analysis) as a method of identifying and quantifying both upside and
downside risk. Elwave is unique, in that you can make your own analysis if
you don't like the scenarios computed for you. No matter what buy/sell
trading system you use, the Elliot Wave is still an advantage to estimate what
stock, or future contract has the most potential movement. Elliot wave theory
is the only way, available to me, to do that. Most trading systems are simply
buy or sell here and don't give any information about "can this stock double,
triple, etc, from here".
This is how I use it.
Run explorations on database in Metastock using favorite trading system
Review the resulting list of buy/sell candidates and charts
Eliminate the ones I would never trade (my bias, not objective, I am human)
Run a quick system test on each remaining to see if my system ever made money
on the stock (would like at least a 30% return historical)
The remaining candidates are analyzed in Elwave for both upside/downside
potential.
Rank the candidates using Elliot wave analysis by potential (usually obvious)
Use money management techniques for sizing the trade
Pull the trigger on the ones with the most potential.
I plot my portfolio equity daily in Excel and calculate portfolio returns. I
can see distinct changes in my equity curve, every time I change strategies.
So far, all strategy changes have been favorable.
Obviously, if you try any software for a demo price for 30 days or so, and
make the price of the software trading it, then it has already payed for
itself.
Kevin Campbell
In a message dated 3/6/99 11:53:58 PM Central Standard Time, rsmith@xxxxxxxxxx
writes:
> I am working through Robert Miner's Dynamic Trading book. I have not been a
> big believer in Elliot Waves, at least in their predicative capability.
> Miner's book is the first book on Elliot waves that makes sense to me in
> using them in trading. I can see where if you were going to trade his
> methodology, using his software would save a tremendous amount of time. The
> problem I have with it is the price, currently $1700. I am a position
> trader of futures with a moderate sized account. I also have had some
> exposure to an earlier version of the Advanced Get program. A friend had it
> and I used to play with it some. I could not see how it could be worth
> $2700 although it seemed to have some potential. I would like to get some
> input from people who use either or both programs as to whether they give
> you an edge in the market, whether you use them alone or in conjunction
> with other methods, and most of all whether you think either is worth the
> price. Thanks in advance.
>
> Rod Smith
> Wasilla, AK
>
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