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</x-html>From ???@??? Tue Mar 02 19:14:09 1999
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Date: Tue, 2 Mar 1999 20:08:13 -0700
Reply-To: eadamy@xxxxxxxxxx
Sender: owner-realtraders@xxxxxxxxxxxxxx
From: "Earl Adamy" <eadamy@xxxxxxxxxx>
To: RealTraders Discussion Group <realtraders@xxxxxxxxxxxxxx>
Subject: Fw: MKT S&P TBill/EarnYld Ratio hits record high
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Chart made it but this never showed up.
-----Original Message-----
From: Earl Adamy <eadamy@xxxxxxxxxx>
To: RealTraders Discussion Group <realtraders@xxxxxxxxxxxxxx>
Date: Tuesday, March 02, 1999 4:43 PM
Subject: Re: MKT S&P TBill/EarnYld Ratio hits record high
>Well, the s&p continues to toy with us but the weekly chart seems to have
>given us some good clues ... that NR7 (w/e 2/19) followed by failed rally
>close to the old high with weekly close near the low suggested that the
>consolidation might be ending badly. We have another price setup on the
>march daily s&p pointing to lower lows but this is only the 3rd time this
>has happened in 9 weeks so it's not a forgone conclusion. Given the
previous
>pivot highs and retracement we have price objectives of 1241, 1212, and
>1166. Normally we should hit the 1212 and today's outside day has not given
>us a pivot in the 1241 area which would suggest that the decline is over.
>Assuming that Tuesday's 1251 high is not violated on Wednesday, we can use
>it to give us a secondary set of price objectives at 1211, 1186, and 1147.
>We also have the first two standard retracements of the rally from the
>October lows at 1203 (holding this area could support an extremely powerful
>rally) and 1157. The confluence of objectives close to the Jan 13 pivot low
>of 1210 suggests that support in this area will be tested and probably
quite
>quickly. Watch it carefully because it is the last bastion of major support
>before we reach the cluster of 1166/1157 close to the Dec14 pivot low of
>1147.
>
>Also, one wants to take the bond bull talking heads with a grain of salt.
>When I looked over the corporate bond fund charts this weekend I was
shocked
>by how bearish they all looked and we have yet to see real signs of a snap
>back rally in the bonds. Also, seasonally and price wise, we may be seeing
>signs of a bottom in the commodities and the bonds may have noticed.
>
>Earl
>
>-----Original Message-----
>From: Earl Adamy <eadamy@xxxxxxxxxx>
>To: RealTraders Discussion Group <realtraders@xxxxxxxxxxxxxx>
>Date: Sunday, February 28, 1999 10:01 AM
>Subject: MKT S&P TBill/EarnYld Ratio hits record high
>
>
>>Attached is updated monthly chart showing the S&P TBill/Earnings Yield
>Ratio
>>at the highest level since TBill data became available in 1941. Needless
to
>>say, this suggests that current valuations are at extreme risk. The weekly
>>version shows the 1.488 high exceeded only by the 1.495 for the week
ending
>>July 17 1998. The weekly NYSE McClellan Oscillator is on a sell signal and
>>the NASDAQ McOsc is about to join it.
>>
>>On a price basis, the S&P has been in a bullish 9 week consolidation,
>>holding to a very tight range after an extremely strong advance. A hint of
>>what may lie ahead may be found in last week's NR7 (narrowest range of
last
>>7) on weekly chart followed by this week's tail reaching to within a few
>>points of the range high and a close near the bottom of the week's range.
>>The bullish view may be considered intact while the S&P remains above the
>>Jan 15 low of 1210, however any meaningful break of this low is likely to
>>prove exceptionally viscous with little or no time to get out of the way.
A
>>lower pivot at 1147 is to be found on the weekly for 12/18 along with
>nearby
>>Fibonacci support, however this would be unlikely to hold given the
extreme
>>valuations and especially the NASDAQ correcting from a high 30% above its
>30
>>week moving average which suggests a minimum retracement to 20% below its
>30
>>week moving average of 1946.
>>
>>My 45 minute charts on the S&P not only turned negative mid-week, but the
>>futures has hit such wide bar ranges that I have it classified as
>unsuitable
>>for day trading. Thus investors and traders alike would be wise to
exercise
>>great caution.
>>
>>Earl
>>
>>
>
>
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