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Drats! Here it is 8:45 CT and I still haven't seen my 6:35 bond
commentary post returned to me.
I'm impressed with the number of people requesting to be put on the
list, so I thought I'd try posting it again! I apologize if its a
duplicate.
It's old news by now, though :(
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T-BOND DAY-TRADING FOR TUESDAY, MARCH 2
USM9
R3 122 4/32
R2 121 14/32
R1 120 24/32
DP 120 5/32
S1 119 15/32
S2 118 28/32
S3 118 6/32
Today is a 2 Day ROC SELL day - Look for intraday signals to go short
MONITOR FOR HOLY GRAIL SETUPS!
If the 5/15/30/60 or 120 min ADX>30 then look to trade the bounce
against that period's 20EMA with the last intraday swing pivot extreme
as the target.
Watch for OOPS! Trade - If O < YL then buy YL on a stop.
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COMMENTARY
Although yesterday I was expecting the market to break out of its
intraday triangle to the north, price crept further away from the DP
early on in the day, creating a very good indication that this was
going to be a trend day in the opposite direction. The fact that it
moved in a direction contrary to that indicated by the cycle
indicators was, in fact, an even stronger bearish signal. This is a
very weak market!
There were two opportunities to sell the break of Friday’s 120-08 low
as suggestted in yesterday’s automated printout: once on the initial
break and another one 15 minutes later on the retracement. An
appropriate stop would have been just above S1 at 120-12. A logical
objective would have been Thursday’s low and the S2 level near 119-22,
for an 18 tick profit.
Anticipation of this Friday’s Unemployment Report will continue to
pressure bonds. In addition, we have a 2 Day ROC Sell signal from the
automated printout, the 200 min. double stoch failed to mark a cycle
bottom and the 7 period %K went into a negative slope (attached
chart).
The market is mounting some very bearish evidence, but I would still
want to enter shorts cautiously here. With price just skimming recent
range lows, we’re bound to have a great many shorts with itchy trigger
fingers ready to bail if things begin to heat up.
Some support and resistance levels of concern. YH was 120-27. YL was
119-18. ON Hi is 120-07. ON Low is 119-25 (Overnight numbers are as of
6:30 AM). 5 and 15 minute 20EMAs are near current levels. 30, 60, and
120 min. EMAs are above current price and will continue to act as
resistance. The DP for today is 120-05. We have a couple of minor
reports being released at 9:00 CT.
I plan on entering the day with a close eye on the DP. We also have a
30 minute EMA directly above this level, starting the day at 120-07.
Any reversal patterns exhibited in this zone on 5 minute bars would be
a good short with a minimum downside target of yesterday’s low at
119-18. But I would keep a tight stop (typically 2 ticks above the
reversal pattern) and I would not hesitate to exit the short with a
profit on either a reversal pattern or oscillator divergence (I use a
3EMA-10EMA on 5 min. bars).
If price were able to break above 120-08 (Friday’s low), I would
consider taking longs.
>From then on, its a matter of paying attention to price as it reacts
near identified support and resistance levels.
Bob Hunt
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