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<P>Gary Kramer wrote:
<BLOCKQUOTE TYPE=CITE> <I><FONT COLOR="#000000"><FONT SIZE=-1>Help!
The trading demons are out to get me! I am in a terrible rut!
Everthing that could go wrong has. I havent had a winning day in
weeks. When I have gotten into a bad streak, I papertrade, I read
Van Tharps stuff, I follow all of the Psychological crap out there to get
my confidence back, then when I go to place the first trade, following
my rules, I get a loser. No big deal, confidence is still up so I
wait for the next setup, take the trade, and of a course a loser so I dont
take the next trade which is the winner. The next one I take is another
loser. Or just when I get into a trade, my ISP goes down or my computer
locks up. This never happens when I papertrade! Or today, I
decided i would trade the mini SPOO to get my confidence back and PMBe
is having problems so I missed 3 trades and had a winner turn into a loser!
I have tried 4 different brokerage firms and obviously that is not the
problem. I have been doing this full time for seven months and am
negative big time!</FONT></FONT></I> <I><FONT SIZE=-1>What should I do?
I unfortunately have done the incorrect thing and jumped to another system
or approach when one failed, looking for the Holy Grail. I know its
not there but I have this glimmer of hope that it is. My system now
is very simple and relies on "reading" 2 minute candlesticks and looking
for reversal patterns and support and resistance points. I use Stochastics
as a basis to assess divergence. Pretty simple stuff yet I cannot
win.</FONT></I> <I><FONT SIZE=-1>Please Help!</FONT></I>
<BR><I><FONT COLOR="#000000"><FONT SIZE=-1>Gary Kramer</FONT></FONT></I></BLOCKQUOTE>
1. Trading futures on the internet is a new vehicle and is prone
to problems. You should have a telephone back up and not be dependent on
the internet. Being dependent on the internet is like being
<BR>dependent on a Model T Ford for transportation back in t he 1920s.
Both the car and the highways
<BR>were unreliable. This is fine for Sunday drives, but not when
it is a critical matter. This also goes to the heart of strategic thinking,
whereby one thinks ahead as to what can go wrong and have that problem
solved before it occurs. This is the type of thinking that is required
for successful trading.
<P>2. You must realize that losing trades is part of the process of a winning
system. You will have losing trades and you will have losing streaks. This
should already be factored into your expected results.
<BR>In my 25 + years of trading, I have had streaks where I went
weeks or months without a winning trade. If possible, stay with your trading
system but try to keep your trades small until you start to see a turn
around. Plot your equity and study it the same way you would a stock or
soybean chart. If you are in a buy mode, that is the chart looks
positive but not overbot, then you can increase your trading size.
<BR>If the equity chart is negative, then you should continue your system
but keep your trading size and exposure to a minimum.
<P>3. Know thyself. You seem to be lost as to where you are at and how
you are doing. You need some objective methods to evaluate where you are
psychologically and emotionally. Markets have cycles and so do people.
Are you in a positive or negative cycle now? Do you have a
model to determine this?
<BR>I have found Astrology very helpful discipline for this purpose.
<P>4. I find it helpful to have a sense of the trend of the market
and also where the market is relative to what it has done over the past
20 - 40 years. Are hogs at 20 cents a good bet on the long or short
side?
<BR>How about if they are at 90 cents? What have then done in the past
under similar circumstances?
<BR>The underlying theme here is to determine under what circumstances
and terms you want to buy or sell a market. You should determine
the parameters that make you feel comfortable. Once you determine what
those parameters are, you should design your trading system accordingly
with some adjustments for reasonable money management limits. This is why
most of these one or two trick TV dinner trading systems don't work. Trading
is both a discipline and an art. Any trading system must be designed
with the user in mind. If the trader doesn't feel comfortable, i.e. intensely
believe it works based on extensive research, then he will quickly lose
confidence and not execute as required.
<P>5. This is totally my subjective opinion, but I have never liked moving
averages or oscillators such as stochastics. Most are lagging indicators
so they make you sell on weakness (low prices) and buy on
<BR>strength (high prices). This seems contrary to what my Mother taught
me about buying wholesale and selling retail. I also believe that buying
low and selling high helps to provide needed liquidity to the market. In
the long run, the market gives value for value received. Those who provide
no service or value in the long run will tend to lose. Those who
provide a valuable service will gain. Speculators who buy near the
top of a speculative bubble just because it is going up and their oscillators
say to buy deserve to lose and the market will help in that regard.
<P>6. Most top professionals in most professions have a teacher,
mentor, or coach to keep them to get to the top and stay at the top of
their game. The negative extreme is the beginner trader who
thinks that for a few hundred or thousand dollars, he can master the game.
Can you imagine this translated to any other professions? For example,
imagine you need a heart transplant. "Doc, how much experience do
you have at this?" "Oh don't worry, I bot the Dr. Cooley Heart Surgery
kit for $1995 and have been practicing in real time for six months".
"What did you do before that?" "Oh, I was a car mechanic for 20 years,
so I have alot experience at fixing things.". The positive example is that
everyone multi-million dollar athlete you see on TV has a personal staff
of trainers and teachers for every aspect of their game and conditioning.
They attack their profession as a long term ongoing endeavor requiring
years of training and the very best teachers.
<BR> . So Gary, you have taken the right
first step, in that you asked for help. Hopefully, something that I said
or someone else says in reply to your request will lead to some insight
that will help you. Please keep in mind that it takes many years
to become proficient at most professions. The best you can hope for is
to develop a trading philosophy that feels comfortable for you and to also
develop a relationship with a successful experienced trader who can compliment
your development and advancement.
<P>Good Trading,
<P>Norman
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</x-html>From ???@??? Sun Feb 28 17:48:21 1999
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From: "charles meyer" <chmeyer@xxxxxxxx>
To: RealTraders Discussion Group <realtraders@xxxxxxxxxxxxxx>
Subject: Re: BMI Satellite Trouble
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Jim and BMI Group:
These instructions and information are exactly the same as the ones I
got from BMI. All my market information had already flatlined as of
Friday morning. What an unsettling mess....
Chas
----------
> From: ALVIS2JS@xxxxxxx
> To: RealTraders Discussion Group <realtraders@xxxxxxxxxxxxxx>
> Subject: BMI Satellite Trouble
> Date: Friday, February 26, 1999 5:33 PM
>
> RTers,
>
> I lost my BMI Satellite signal (the dreaded "unlock") Thursday afternoon
about
> 2:30 ET. The BMI tech dept. assumed hardware failure and overnighted me a
new
> receiver. I installed new box today - still no signal. Called BMI
Friday
> afternoon just as they were getting email to the effect that the problem
stems
> from a strong new signal from Telestar 5 that is interfering with BMI
signal
> from Galaxy 3R. The tech I spoke with suggested that I should contact a
> satellite service to come and use a digital meter to precisely adjust my
dish
> 1/4 to 1/2 degree to the East, thus zeroing in on Galaxy 3R better than
one is
> likely to achieve using just the receiver box alone. The tech said BMI
will
> issue a credit of up to $100 for this service if you send in the original
> receipt. He also said info about this problem would soon be posted on
the
> web site - www.bmiquotes.com.
>
> This information is preliminary and second hand and is only posted as a
heads
> up for others who may be suffering similar problems. My problem may be
> compounded by the fact that here in North Carolina, I am on the edge of
the
> satellite "footprint". If you have additional or better information,
please
> post it.
>
> Regards,
> Jim Alvis
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