|
PureBytes Links
Trading Reference Links
|
RTers,
First, on a very general basis, we have seen a very regular 9 month
cycle occur. In classic cycle analysis, the tops of this cycle tell us
what the next larger cycle(s) are doing to influence this. In
otherwards, left hand or right hand translation.
>From the low in mid April 1997 to the next cycle low in Jan 1998, there
were two peaks, one in August 97 and the second peak occurred in early
October 1997 which meant six months up, three months down.
>From the Jan 1998 low to the next nine month low in October 1998, the
peak occurred in July 1998, again six months up and three months down.
If the longer term cycles are still pointing up, and I would think they
are based on the above, then the next peak off of the October 1998 low
would come in early April 1999, with the decline lasting until July
1999, the six and three combo.
I realize this 6-3 combination won't keep working. At some point, the
larger cycles will begin to roll over and shift the peaks over to a left
hand translation. Then, we will know for sure that the trend is down.
The other reason I would still look for the April top is momentum. Other
investors have indicated to me that there was a momentum peak around the
January 8 top. If we use logic, momentum always reaches its peak at the
center of the thrust, and NOT at its top. Measuring the time from
October 1998 to say mid-January 1999 as the halfway point, still gives
us the April timeframe as being valid.
The Bradley indicator is also calling for an April top as well.
I realize this is a broad brushstroke, but I'd be interested in hearing
other cycle analysts opinions.
George
P.S. If it means anything to the astro folks, Arch Crawford was on MSNBC
a month or so ago, and said to watch April 10 very closely for a large
top, then a July-October 1998 type decline or more into late July 1999,
then up for the rest of the year.
|