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I have been reading all the discussion about volatility and movement in
the bond market. The sophisticated means of trying to derive direction
and momentum and the results of this work. There is a simple way of
doing it. Put up the Bollinger bands. Look at the contraction and
expansion of the outer lines and you will see a picture of what you are
trying to describe. When it contracts you can expect a violent move and
when it expands violently you can expect a rest. Sounds the same to
me. As for direction I believe I made posts in December or January with
price projections of 123-19, 122-24 and 121-04. Prior to that I had
made a projection of 126-02. All have been met with the exception of
the 121-04. If anyone kept those posts let me know and the numbers given
as I have deleted them from my system. I believe the numbers that I
have included above are correct and the same ones given in the previous
post. These price levels will first act as support and when penetrated
act as resistance. It looks like this move to the down side is about
over and a retracement should be in the offing. Time will tell. Good
trading, Ira.
These are not trading recommendations, just observations.
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