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<DIV><FONT color=#000000 face="Comic Sans MS" size=2>Does anyone have any info
or feedback on Joseph Stowell's Bond trading newsletter??</FONT></DIV>
<DIV><FONT color=#000000 face="Comic Sans MS" size=2></FONT> </DIV>
<DIV><FONT color=#000000 face="Comic Sans MS" size=2>Thanks</FONT></DIV>
<DIV><FONT color=#000000 face="Comic Sans MS" size=2>Rob</FONT></DIV>
<DIV><FONT color=#000000 face="Comic Sans MS" size=2></FONT> </DIV>
<DIV><FONT color=#000000 face="Comic Sans MS" size=2><A
href="http://www.bondtrades.com/essent/";>http://www.bondtrades.com/essent/</A></FONT></DIV></BODY></HTML>
</x-html>From ???@??? Wed Feb 10 23:16:32 1999
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From: "U.Stuart Auslander, NYC" <u.stuart-auslander@xxxxxxxxxxxxxxxx>
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Subject: Continuation of the April 1998 Bear
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<BR>http://www.decisionpoint.com/DailyCharts/NHNLcurrent.html
Highs lows
<BR>http://www.decisionpoint.com/DailyCharts/CurrentPC.html
Call Put
<BR>http://www.decisionpoint.com/DailyCharts/ADCurrent.html
Advance declines
<P>1. <B>Breadth</B>
<BR>Look at the chart of the advance decline line.
<BR>http://www.decisionpoint.com/DailyCharts/ADCurrent.html
<BR>Notice the rally in the market in July. The Advance decline line
virtually contradicts the rally. We have a rerun today in which the
rally from the end of January to a few days ago is similarly unsupported
by breadth. This takes place in the context of the whole rally from
October not being supported by the breadth statistics. (The a/d numbers
do have a downside bias. On the Amex and Nasdaq it is so bad that for me
they are not indicators at all to me.) The a/d behavior is, however, confirmed
by the less biased Russell 2000 and the Value Line. Another way of
looking at breadth is to look at the new highs and lows. The DOW
hit a new high in early January after a 3 month run. We should expect
lots of new highs. New highs do not even equal the level at the failure
rally in July 1998. These breadth contradictions do not come very
often but when they do they often produce vicious declines.
<P>2. <B>Sentiment</B>
<BR>We know what just went on in the internet issues. It gives us
an insight to the irrationality taking place in stock buying. If
we know who the buyers are, then we also know who the sellers are.
We have public frenzy. It follows we have professional selling.
When that public liquidity becomes exhausted the bids for stocks disappear,
creating a vacuum of support. Stocks will decline on low volume for
lack of bids. (High volume will come at the bottom of the move.)
I have a number of objective measures of sentiment. The first is
the call put ratio using CBOE figures. (I don't know how to interpret OEX
figures.) The chart shows you the ratio is at the highest levels
in 3 years. To this I add low trin and spikes in volume on the AMEX
and Nasdaq relative to the NYSE vol that took place in Nov. and Dec.
In short the rally since October has not been met with skepticism and disbelief
but was met with enthusiasm. Those are not the conditions of a sustainable
rally.
<P>3. <B>Money</B>
<BR>Banks have tightened their lending standards. The yield curve
is not hostile but not friendly. Adjusted reserves until last week
have not been expanding for 3 years. Adjusted reserves are a measure
of banks required reserves. The measure excludes currency, which
is currently a distortive factor because it doesn't stay in the USA.
<P>In short we can get rallies from here and even plausibly new highs in
the DOW, but I suspect that the run from October was the last hurrah.
<P>Stuart
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</x-html>From ???@??? Wed Feb 10 23:16:37 1999
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RT's,
I took a course several years ago in Blackjack from a gentleman in Las
Vegas, I went home and studied card counting. After three months, I went back
to Vegas and played at several casinos, almost every time I played, I won in
the long run and every time I went to Vegas, I went home with more money than
I went there. It all comes down to risk management and seeing the right setups
just as I do when I'm trading futures.
If you don't have a plan that you have not backtested, it is called
gambling and if you backtest and you have a plan, it is called speculating.
Oat
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