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I beg to contradict. They are interchangeable. If you know
what you are doing in either venue it becomes a matter of probabilities.
In dice, poker, blackjack and most other games of chance the probability
of winning change with each hand or roll of the dice. If one understands
this one can win at any of these supposed games of chance by knowing what
the probabilities are in their favor or against. In stocks, futures
and options like in games of chance the odds are always the same but the
probabilities change with differing conditions. If one understands the
markets and what one is doing then one can be successful in this field
also. There is no black box system that will win in either field
but knowledge and understanding gives the trader and the gambler the same
chance. The casinos know how the odds work. It appears that
the major brokerage houses don't. Have you seen the results of their
trading accounts? Good trading, Ira.
<p>Bob Heisler wrote:
<blockquote TYPE=CITE> I enjoyed your post, but would like to comment
that trading and gambling are two <b><u><font color="#FF0000">very</font></u></b>
different animals. Bobwww.rjhtrading.com <font face="Arial"><font size=-1>-----Original
Message-----</font></font>
<br><font face="Arial"><font size=-1>From: M. Edward Borasky <znmeb@xxxxxxxxxxxx></font></font>
<br><font face="Arial"><font size=-1>To: RealTraders Discussion Group <realtraders@xxxxxxxxxxxxxx></font></font>
<br><font face="Arial"><font size=-1>Date: Wednesday, February 10, 1999
12:19 AM</font></font>
<br><font face="Arial"><font size=-1>Subject: Re: CL_Signal OnLine &
TimberHill down</font></font>
<br> >I think I want to take advantage of this opportunity to engage
in a
<br>>minor rant. First of all, I should note that I am not a "trader" as
you
<br>>folks understand the term. I don't have either the capital or the
time
<br>>to do this sort of trading, nor do I think I could handle the emotional
<br>>part of the game. I lived in Las Vegas for nine years, so I've seen
the
<br>>symptoms.
<br>>
<br>>What I do for a living is computer performance analysis. Along with
the
<br>>art and the obvious required skills in interpreting data, there is
a
<br>>great deal of mathematics and statistics involved. Trading and computer
<br>>performance analysis have a great deal of common mathematics. And
the
<br>>stories I am hearing from Earl and others on this mailing list and
in
<br>>some of the Usenet groups lead me to believe that the current rage
for
<br>>electronic trading, especially browser clients and Windows N T or
UN IX
<br>>servers, presents us with a classic example of the sorts of things
that
<br>>can happen to you if you don't get your computer performance analysis
<br>>and capacity planning right.
<br>>
<br>>The math is pretty hairy, but fortunately some pretty simple pictures
<br>>tell the story, and when I figure out how to post them here I will.
But
<br>>the basic concepts are throughput -- the number of transactions a
system
<br>>is processing in a given amount of time -- and response time -- the
time
<br>>from when the client submits a request to the server to when the client
<br>>receives the response back from the server. And *any* system has a
<br>>*finite* capacity in transactions per second. An idle system (no
<br>>transactions) has a very fast response time. Add some load -- increase
<br>>the throughput -- and the response time gets longer. Exceed
the
<br>>capacity of the system -- increase the throughput beyond a certain
<br>>point -- and the response time becomes essentially infinte. The system
<br>>can't handle the transactions, and it either ignores them, or just
<br>>collapses in a ragged heap.
<br>>
<br>>What Earl is describing, and what I've heard about the E-trade problems
<br>>and to some extent certain events during the 1987 stock market crash
<br>>sounds to me very much like what happens when you try to pump 1000
<br>>transactions per second through a system that only has a capacity
of 100
<br>>transactions per second. I can't be sure, of course, without looking
at
<br>>NT PerfMon or UNIX 'sar' traces, but the educated guess of this
<br>>performance analyst is that a number of the computer systems that
<br>>high-freqency traders depend on are operating dangerously near their
<br>>capacity limits. So on top of all the other risks of high-frequency
<br>>trading, you should be aware that all computers have a finite capacity
<br>>and that bad things can happen to you when that capacity is exceeded.
<br>>--
<br>>M. Edward Borasky znmeb@xxxxxxxxxxxx
http://www.teleport.com/~znmeb
<br>>
<br>>If God had meant carrots to be eaten cooked, He would have given rabbits
<br>>fire.
<br>>
<br>>-----Original Message-----
<br>>From: Earl Adamy <eadamy@xxxxxxxxxx>
<br>>To: RealTraders Discussion Group <realtraders@xxxxxxxxxxxxxx>
<br>>Date: Tuesday, February 09, 1999 08:54
<br>>Subject: CL_Signal OnLine & TimberHill down
<br>>
<br>>
<br>>>One of those mornings where everything which can go wrong does.
<br>>TimberHill
<br>>>price feed went down around 830 mountain - if customers noticed no
<br>>price
<br>>>changes coming in that was fine, otherwise tough s__t for some 15+
<br>>minutes
<br>>>until they sent out a bulletin about 5 minutes before they got the
feed
<br>>back
<br>>>up. Next Signal Online feeds went down and now they won't stay down
nor
<br>>will
<br>>>they stay up.
<br>>>
<br>>>Earl
<br>>>
<br>></blockquote>
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Reply-To: dickwebb711@xxxxxxxxx
Sender: owner-realtraders@xxxxxxxxxxxxxx
From: Dick Webb <dickwebb711@xxxxxxxxx>
To: RealTraders Discussion Group <realtraders@xxxxxxxxxxxxxx>
Subject: New timing technique
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A friend suggested I check out
www.ermanometry.com and www.thegoldenbox.com
They appear to be doing the same thing or perhaps even using the same
methodology. The ermanometry technique appears to be quite interesting
does anyone have any experience with it or with William Erman?
Thanks
Dick
==
Big Lucky Dick
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