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The attached file is a picture (through last Friday) of the
Dow Jones Industrial Average index. The thin brown line
with black squares represents the daily closing price of
the DJIA index.
This picture is very cluttered but is designed to show
several aspects of SM that may not have been considered.
The picture was made with what may become a commercial
version of SM BUT YOU CAN DO EXACTLY THE SAME THING WITH
THE DOS VERSION -- if you download the corrected version
that I just posted. You will have to have a good graphics
editor so you can copy "transparent" images from one capture
to another -- I had to do this with this version when I
wanted to show the difference in swings from two different
lengths of data.
I strongly recommend that you go to http://www.techsmith.com
and download a copy of SnagIt which is the best capture
program I have seen. (Thanks to Hans for the reference).
You should also get PaintShopPro as the graphics editor.
Here is what the attached picture is all about:
1. We have plotted projections from three different time frames
as indicated on the lower right of the attached chart.
2. Two sets of projections have been plotted. One (the heavy
lines) was made based on a relative short set of data which
covered 1993 through 1999. The second (and I believe more
reliable) set of projections are shown with rather thing RED,
BLUE, and GREEN lines extending forward of the end of data.
The basic data for these was taken from the period 1973 through
1999.
At the end of the green projections you will find the numbers
92 on the thin line and 22 on the thick line. This means that
the thin line resulted from the averaging of 92 swing patterns
while the heavy line only included 22 patterns.
Given a roughly 4 to 1 difference in number of patterns it is
a bit surprising that the resultant average patterns are as
similar as they are.
3. Multiple time frame interpretation. The longer period
(GREEN) projection is tracked reasonably well insofar as time
frame is concerned with prices showing a recent bottom
(time wise) about where the first trough in the green line(s)
occur. Going forward from this point we begin to see the
projections for the shorter periods and note that the swings
from the 5 bar and 9 bar projections are almost 180 degrees
out of phase and consequently may contribute little to the
near term prices.
4. Remember, a newer version of the original program has
just been posted to:
ftp://intrepid.com/pub/clyde
and is available for download and installation. The README
file has some instructions and when you unzip SWINGPROG.ZIP
you should read EVERYTHING that has an extension of .txt
Have fun.
Clyde Lee
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Clyde Lee Chairman/CEO (Home of SwingMachine)
SYTECH Corporation email: <clydelee@xxxxxxx>
7910 Westglen, Suite 105 Work: (713) 783-9540
Houston, TX 77063 Fax: (713) 783-1092
SM available at: ftp://intrepid.com/pub/clyde
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Attachment Converted: "c:\eudora\attach\junk3.gif"
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