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Dear Alan
<BR>The FED knows that the money figures no mater how
you calculate them always have deficiencies. The value in the money
supply numbers has been that they tend to be or used to be predictive of
economic growth. For us as speculators the value is in the understanding
that increases or decreases in money supply <U>growth rates</U> tend to
spill into the securities markets before they have an effect on the economy.
The effects should start with the bond markets and currency markets and
then diffuse into the stock markets.
<BR>Before Greenspan, Fed changes in money supply growth were heavy handed.
You could clearly tell if the Fed was tightening or loosening. External
factors were less important. The Greenspan Fed is very slow
and incremental in changes. We almost avoided a recession in
1990 1991 very much to Greenspan's credit using slow incremental changes
in the funds rate. He is subtle when he wants to be with policy and
he is skilled in public in making statements that are impossible to decipher.
<P>In the last few months, we have had lowering of the Fed funds rate two
times and two lowerings of the discount rate. This type of action
usually comes during a recession or economic slow down as we had in 1994.
In stock market terms it usually precedes a new bull market or a new major
leg. But this case we had very different characteristics.
Free market rates in the form of 90 day t-bills were already leading the
way down. The fed was not pushing rates lower it was following the
market and did not go as far as the market. Under these circumstances
I am not sure that Fed policy is truly being stimulate.
<P>Theoretically in the longer run a truly stimulative monetary policy
should lower interest rates, lower the dollar and start gold and
commodity prices into up trends.
<P>I wish you good trading, Stuart Auslander
<BR>
<BR>
<P>Alan Myers wrote:
<BLOCKQUOTE TYPE=CITE>If the current figures are misleading, the fed would
be aware of that. What
<BR>changes has the fed made as a result? They have a greater need
to know than
<BR>most. All anyone else needs to know is what the fed is going
to base their
<BR>decisions on and watch that.
<P>~Alan
<P>-----Original Message-----
<BR>From: U.Stuart Auslander, NYC
<P> I suspect that the money figures are now misleading,
since the dollar
<BR>has become an international currency.</BLOCKQUOTE>
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</x-html>From ???@??? Sun Feb 07 20:30:25 1999
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Sender: owner-realtraders@xxxxxxxxxxxxxx
From: "M. Edward Borasky" <znmeb@xxxxxxxxxxxx>
To: RealTraders Discussion Group <realtraders@xxxxxxxxxxxxxx>
Subject: Re: GEN: Why P&F Box Sizes?
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Define a bad tick. Is it a price where a trade never happened? Or did
someone actually exchange the tradeable at that price??
--
M. Edward Borasky znmeb@xxxxxxxxxxxx http://www.teleport.com/~znmeb
If God had meant carrots to be eaten cooked, He would have given rabbits
fire.
-----Original Message-----
From: Bob Fulks <bfulks@xxxxxxxxxxxx>
To: RealTraders Discussion Group <realtraders@xxxxxxxxxxxxxx>
Date: Sunday, February 07, 1999 17:22
Subject: RE: GEN: Why P&F Box Sizes?
>At 12:07 PM -0700 2/7/99, gary bodnar wrote:
>>Maybe one of you P&F expert can explain why two different box sizes
would
>>show something different, for example, box size at .10 cent would be
>>bullish while box size @.15 would be bearish.. In other word,
>>the .10 cent box is showing the X signals while the .15 cent box is
showing
>>the O signals.. In all I assume one should keep track in different box
>>sizes in order to have a bigger picture of the price movement??
>
>And keep in mind that for intraday charts P&F charts are extremely
>susceptible to bad ticks which basically makes them useless for
intraday
>work. One bad tick can drastically change the traditional
bullish/bearish
>patterns.
>
>Bob Fulks
>
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