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I'm attaching my intermediate term historical chart (data available by
subscription from pinnacledata.com, check St. Louis Fed for free history).
NYSE short sales data is reported weekly with a two week reporting delay.
The theory behind using specialist shorts is that the specialists are
required to supply inventory to a rising market and absorb supply in a
declining market. Therefor the specialist short sales positions are believed
to provide some intelligence regarding specialist inventory positions. While
the specialist shorts moving average in yellow (displaced 2 weeks to
compensate for reporting delay) is clearly at extremely high levels, the
specialist short data seems to do a better forecasting job at bottoms rather
than tops.
-----Original Message-----
From: U.Stuart Auslander, NYC <u.stuart-auslander@xxxxxxxxxxxxxxxx>
To: RealTraders Discussion Group <realtraders@xxxxxxxxxxxxxx>
Date: Sunday, February 07, 1999 1:31 AM
Subject: Re: Market Trend, continuation of bear begun in April 98
>stimulation, declining interest rates and declining rates of inflation.
Earl
>Adamy from the Realtraders List has cited extreems of specialist short
selling.
>(Does anyone have a free source for charts on this?) This confirms the
extreems
>of call buying and observation of extreems of speculation in internet
stocks. The
>kind of speculation we see now I associate with the 1969 rally after the
1968 top
>and the 1962 speculation. In each case serious declines followed. 1962
was not
>associated with conventional Fed tightening though interest rates did rise.
Attachment Converted: "c:\eudora\attach\NYSESPEC.gif"
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