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Varouj,
Like Ira said, it depends on what time frame you are talking about. The
short-term trend is sideways (lower highs, but no lower lows), but the
long-term trend is up. I am not saying the bull market is over. Although all
bear markets start with a short-term trend reversal, not all short-term trend
reversals result in bear markets. My time frame is short (2-5 days).
Micheal Mangiafico's post regarding a possible bullish flag was exactly the
type of post I was looking for. If I make a bearish case, and someone else
makes a bullish case, it raises the probability of our collective analysis
being complete. Good posts everyone!
Bill
Varouj wrote:
> Bill,
> Are you suggesting the bull market is over? Or are you just talking about a
> retracement here?
> I think the bull market is not over, but I do see a retracement to the 1000
> to 1150 range on March S&P futures. Since we've had such nice long up swing
> (September, October period), I think this may be one of the rare occasion
> for me to trade a reaction swing on the downside.
> Happy trading
> Varouj Abrahamian
> On Friday, January 22, 1999 6:19 AM, Bill Bancroft
> [SMTP:bbancroft@xxxxxxxxx] wrote:
> > RTs,
> >
> > I said yesterday that:
> >
> > "For me, I don't call a top until three things happen:
> > 1. The market breaks a bullish trendline.
> > 2. The market fails to make new highs (lower highs).
> > 3. The market breaks through support (lower lows)."
> >
> > I now am convinced that the S&P 500 has put in a lower high. The only
> > thing that needs to happen is for the market to close below 1208 for two
> > days in a row (just for confirmation). IF that happens, prices should
> > not return above 1208 anytime soon or the trend reversal would be
> > questionable. Remember 12/14/98, everyone thought we had a break of
> > support only to see prices come roaring back.
> >
> > Although I enjoy the feedback from this forum regarding the current
> > market action, I ask myself, "Where are the Bulls?" Not one bullish
> > person responded. Maybe that is bullish in and of itself. I like to
> > have my observations challenged, it helps to keep an open mind. What is
> > the bullish case here, technically speaking?
> >
> > Bill Bancroft
> >
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