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<DIV><FONT face=Arial size=2><B>-----Original Message-----</B><BR><B>From:
</B>patrick fernicola <<A
href="mailto:patefern@xxxxxxxxxxxxxxxx";>patefern@xxxxxxxxxxxxxxxx</A>><BR><B>To:
</B>realtraders <<A
href="mailto:realtraders@xxxxxxxxxxxxxx";>realtraders@xxxxxxxxxxxxxx</A>><BR><B>Date:
</B>Saturday, January 23, 1999 12:38 PM<BR><B>Subject: </B>re:COT
data<BR><BR></DIV></FONT>
<DIV>
<DIV><FONT face="" size=2><FONT face=Verdana><STRONG>John,</FONT></FONT><FONT
face=Verdana></FONT></STRONG></DIV>
<DIV><FONT face="" size=2><FONT face=Verdana><STRONG>The commercials are the
hardest to interrupt because of all the variables and when I look at them I'm
looking for large % changes, and changes of direction, gross short to long and
long to short. For me, the best information to be gleamed from the COT was
written in an interview with a former head of a bank options dept./floor
trader/Wall St. trader, who said the floor traders look to increase the volume
by squeezing the one side of the market that is overly long or short, thus
hitting stops and creating volume. He said he follows the path that hurts
the highest number of hedgers. For instance, the last COT report put
large cotton traders about 6 to 1 short, could there be a bounce
there?</FONT></FONT><FONT face=Verdana></FONT></STRONG></DIV>
<DIV><FONT face=Verdana
size=2><STRONG>Pat</STRONG></FONT></DIV></DIV></BODY></HTML>
</x-html>From ???@??? Sun Jan 24 09:00:56 1999
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To: RealTraders Discussion Group <realtraders@xxxxxxxxxxxxxx>
Subject: GEN: Volatlity Perpestive
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Just thought I would share this implied vs historical volatility perspective
with you. Inspite of the political and economic noise, the volatility pattern
continues on as it did last year, see points ABCD on the attached chart. The
actual days and time between them vary each year but the pattern remains the
same. At the present time Jan '98 is in sync with Jan '99 in that the implied
is peaking and the 5 day historical has peaked at point(s) D. The
volatilities drop into the spring as the mkt rises or consolidates. Crashes
are saved for the Fall season. Some gurus are calling for a cycle low early
next week. This would fit in with the current volatility levels and pattern.
With the impeachment about to become a nonevent and the reliable "payroll"
cycle to hit mid week we should have a decent rally into the first week of
February.
BobR
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