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Earl,
I refered to the 105 and 172 day cycles in a very "loose" manner, In
this instance, I intended to define a "cycle" as points along a
trendline....even if it is only one cycle. I was not trying to imply
that either of these "cycles" are repetitive. So...please forgive my
"stretching" of the definition of cycle here.
Having said this, I should mention that I have observed a rough 105
calendar day cycle counting backward from Jan 8, 1999.
As for support levels, my analysis is showing possible support at 1195,
1170 and 1150...so I'm not so sure we are far apart in our thinking. I
stated 1170 in my post as I saw this support level as having a very high
probability of being reached. Of course if the market goes down to 1150
and holds, a drop to 1100 or lower is unlikely for a while. My analysis
actually has 1000 as the target if 1150 fails. Again...I indicated 1100
in my post because there is a substantially higher probability it will
be reached.
Let's see what the market tells us...
Andre
_______________________________________________
Would you elaborate a bit on how you calculated the peak-peak cycle,
especially what starting point you used and how you decided upon it?
The 1234-1238 target and support area on the daily, which I referred to
yesterday, has been hit and the failure of the 45 min to mount a
significant
retracement late yesterday now confirms the 1203-1205 area as the next
minimum target with likely targets of 1177 on the 45 min and 1153 on the
daily. A .25 retracements on the daily would be 1203 and most likely
.382
fib retracement at 1157. One could conclude that a decline to the
1153-1157
is rather likely and such a decline would not represent serious damage
as it
would represent a normal retracement of the cup and handle pattern which
began on July 20 and would leave the Dec 14 pivot low intact. A decline
below this level could signal the beginning of a further, more serious
decline to the 1074 area which represents .618 fib retracement and
extended
price objective. It is interesting to note that after confirming the Jan
12
Wyckoff Thrust on the daily, we completed a Thrust on the 45 minute
yesterday - such repetitions tend to confirm the validity and strength
of
the reversal.
Earl
-----Original Message-----
From: Andre Franklin <andref@xxxxxxxxxxx>
To: RealTraders Discussion Group <realtraders@xxxxxxxxxxxxxx>
Date: Friday, January 22, 1999 12:54 AM
Subject: SP500 Index Analysis
>Just thought I'd share a chart with you that implies the possible
>beginnings of a bear market in the SP500 index from the Jan 8th peak in
>the attached chart. The peak-peak cycles of 105 and 172 days form a
>Golden ratio along an upward sloping trendline. The possibility of Jan
>8th as a major reversal point should be considered. Recent activity
>implies that Jan 8th was the last wave of the major bull run from Oct
>8th. Personally, I expect to see a decline to at least 1170 in the
>coming few weeks....and a possible decline to 1100 in 4-6 weeks.
>
>I don't have much time in this message to elaborate further on this
>analysis...but I'd like to share it with my fellow RealTraders....for
>what it's worth....
>
>Good trading!!!!
>
>Andre
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