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Bill, the bullish case(and this has not unfolded yet) from a pure Ewards and
McGee type analysis, is that a bullish flag pattern is forming. The pattern
has not
completed, but the early stages of the congestion have a downward slope,
which for me is overall bullish until support is broken. (see
chart--magenta trend-lines)
The break of the upward blue tend channel along with divergent stochastics
undoubtedly called for correction. But notice the flag pattern, support
is reached right
at previous high --11/30/98 resistance line, and old resistance now becomes
support. This is two levels of support, and will be tough to break, but it
may happen.
An upward break of this pattern would mean a resumption of bullish trend, an
obviously we must wait to see if support can be broken to see if bear market
is here.
Right now, I am range trading, currenlty short, watching price action at
support in 1205 area basis cash.
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<h2 align=center>S&P CASH<br>
(.SPX) </h2>
<p align=center><img src="test.jpg" align=bottom> </p>
<h3 align=center>Data for 01/21/99 </h3>
<div align=center><center>
<table border=1 ALIGN="CENTER">
<tr><td><table ALIGN="CENTER">
<tr><td><font FACE="Arial"><font color="#000000">Exp Trend</font></font></td><td><font FACE="Arial"><font color="#000000">N/A</font></font> </td></tr><tr><td><font FACE="Arial"><font color="#000000">.SPX</font></font></td><td><font FACE="Arial"><font color="#000000"></font></font> </td></tr><tr><td><font FACE="Arial"><font color="#000000">Open</font></font></td><td><font FACE="Arial"><font color="#000000">1256.600</font></font> </td></tr><tr><td><font FACE="Arial"><font color="#000000">High</font></font></td><td><font FACE="Arial"><font color="#000000">1256.940</font></font> </td></tr><tr><td><font FACE="Arial"><font color="#000000">Low</font></font></td><td><font FACE="Arial"><font color="#000000">1232.190</font></font> </td></tr><tr><td><font FACE="Arial"><font color="#000000">Close</font></font></td><td><font FACE="Arial"><font color="#000000">1234.710</font></font> </td></tr><tr><td><font FACE="Arial"><font color="#000000">Volume</font></font></td><td><font FACE="Arial"><font color="#000000">0</font></font> </td></tr><tr><td><font FACE="Arial"><font color="#000000">Open Int.</font></font></td><td><font FACE="Arial"><font color="#000000">0</font></font> </td></tr><tr><td><font FACE="Arial"><font color="#000000">Price Chg.</font></font></td><td><font FACE="Arial"><font color="#000000">-21.9</font></font> </td></tr><tr><td><font FACE="Arial"><font color="#000000">Stoch</font></font></td><td><font FACE="Arial"><font color="#000000">71.4597</font></font> </td></tr><tr><td><font FACE="Arial"><font color="#000000">MA</font></font></td><td><font FACE="Arial"><font color="#000000">73.2061</font></font> </td></tr><tr><td><font FACE="Arial"><font color="#000000">RSI</font></font></td><td><font FACE="Arial"><font color="#000000">49.0352</font></font> </td></tr>
</table>
</td></tr>
</table>
</center></div>
</body>
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<DIV><EM><FONT color=#000000 size=2>Does anyone know whether one can deduct the
cost of commissions if one elects trader status on his/her tax return? I
know that all other trading related expenses and losses can be deducted if you
are a qualified trader.</FONT></EM></DIV>
<DIV><EM><FONT color=#000000 size=2></FONT></EM> </DIV>
<DIV><EM><FONT size=2>Thanks</FONT></EM></DIV>
<DIV><EM><FONT color=#000000 size=2></FONT></EM> </DIV>
<DIV><EM><FONT color=#000000 size=2></FONT></EM> </DIV>
<DIV><EM><FONT color=#000000 size=2><BR>Gary
Kramer<BR></FONT></EM></DIV></BODY></HTML>
</x-html>From ???@??? Fri Jan 22 08:17:34 1999
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Subject: Re: Where are the Bulls?
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Bill, the bullish case(and this has not unfolded yet) from a pure Ewards and
McGee type analysis, is that a bullish flag pattern is forming. The pattern
has not
completed, but the early stages of the congestion have a downward slope,
which for me is overall bullish until support is broken. (see
chart--magenta trend-lines)
The break of the upward blue tend channel along with divergent stochastics
undoubtedly called for correction. But notice the flag pattern, support
is reached right
at previous high --11/30/98 resistance line, and old resistance now becomes
support. This is two levels of support, and will be tough to break, but it
may happen.
An upward break of this pattern would mean a resumption of bullish trend, an
obviously we must wait to see if support can be broken to see if bear market
is here.
Right now, I am range trading, currenlty short, watching price action at
support in 1205 area basis cash.
I keep trying to attach a chart, but the file is to big. Anyway, the above
description describes a possible bullish scenario.
MM
Bill Bancroft wrote:
> RTs,
>
> I said yesterday that:
>
> "For me, I don't call a top until three things happen:
> 1. The market breaks a bullish trendline.
> 2. The market fails to make new highs (lower highs).
> 3. The market breaks through support (lower lows)."
>
> I now am convinced that the S&P 500 has put in a lower high. The only
> thing that needs to happen is for the market to close below 1208 for two
> days in a row (just for confirmation). IF that happens, prices should
> not return above 1208 anytime soon or the trend reversal would be
> questionable. Remember 12/14/98, everyone thought we had a break of
> support only to see prices come roaring back.
>
> Although I enjoy the feedback from this forum regarding the current
> market action, I ask myself, "Where are the Bulls?" Not one bullish
> person responded. Maybe that is bullish in and of itself. I like to
> have my observations challenged, it helps to keep an open mind. What is
> the bullish case here, technically speaking?
>
> Bill Bancroft
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